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Championship

Referee: M Donohue

Swansea

T U S T T

1–4

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,8

1,5

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

0,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,2

This season — Championship · 22/20 matches

Win Ø 36%

36%

35%

Points per game

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

59%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

45%

55%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

75% Possession 25%

12 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 2

0 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 12. · Nott'm Forest 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	22	14	5	3	+34	47
2	Bournemouth	22	12	8	2	+20	44
3	West Brom	22	11	7	4	+13	40
4	Blackburn	22	11	6	5	+12	39
5	Stoke	22	11	4	7	+7	37
6	Coventry	23	10	7	6	+6	37
7	QPR	22	10	5	7	+5	35
8	Middlesbrough	22	9	5	8	+3	32
9	Sheffield United	21	9	4	8	+4	31
10	Luton	21	8	6	7	+7	30
11	Huddersfield	21	8	6	7	+2	30
12	Swansea	22	8	6	8	+1	30
13	Millwall	22	7	9	6	+0	30
14	Reading	22	9	3	10	-4	30
15	Bristol City	22	8	5	9	-7	29
16	Preston	22	7	7	8	-4	28
17	Nott'm Forest	20	7	6	7	+3	27
18	Blackpool	21	7	6	8	-5	27
19	Birmingham	22	7	5	10	-7	26
20	Derby	22	4	10	8	-5	22
21	Hull	22	6	4	12	-8	22
22	Cardiff	22	6	4	12	-14	22
23	Peterboro	22	5	4	13	-22	19
24	Peterborough	21	4	4	13	-23	16
25	Barnsley	22	2	8	12	-18	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Coventry	12	8	2	2	+13	26
2	Blackburn	12	8	2	2	+12	26
3	Fulham	11	7	3	1	+17	24
4	Stoke	11	7	2	2	+8	23
5	West Brom	10	6	4	0	+11	22
6	Bournemouth	10	6	3	1	+12	21
7	QPR	11	6	3	2	+6	21
8	Middlesbrough	12	6	2	4	+5	20
9	Huddersfield	10	6	2	2	+5	20
10	Swansea	11	5	4	2	+8	19
11	Millwall	11	5	4	2	+3	19
12	Preston	11	5	4	2	+3	19
13	Reading	12	5	3	4	+2	18
14	Sheffield United	11	5	2	4	+8	17
15	Luton	10	5	2	3	+7	17
16	Peterboro	11	4	4	3	+3	16
17	Derby	10	3	5	2	+1	14
18	Nott'm Forest	11	4	2	5	-1	14
19	Bristol City	11	3	5	3	-1	14
20	Birmingham	10	4	2	4	-2	14
21	Blackpool	11	4	2	5	-5	14
22	Peterborough	10	3	4	3	+2	13
23	Hull	11	3	2	6	-4	11
24	Barnsley	11	2	3	6	-7	9
25	Cardiff	11	2	1	8	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	11	7	2	2	+17	23
2	Bournemouth	12	6	5	1	+8	23
3	West Brom	12	5	3	4	+2	18
4	Cardiff	11	4	3	4	-5	15
5	Bristol City	11	5	0	6	-6	15
6	QPR	11	4	2	5	-1	14
7	Stoke	11	4	2	5	-1	14
8	Sheffield United	10	4	2	4	-4	14
9	Nott'm Forest	9	3	4	2	+4	13
10	Luton	11	3	4	4	+0	13
11	Blackpool	10	3	4	3	+0	13
12	Blackburn	10	3	4	3	+0	13
13	Middlesbrough	10	3	3	4	-2	12
14	Birmingham	12	3	3	6	-5	12
15	Reading	10	4	0	6	-6	12
16	Millwall	11	2	5	4	-3	11
17	Hull	11	3	2	6	-4	11
18	Swansea	11	3	2	6	-7	11
19	Coventry	11	2	5	4	-7	11
20	Huddersfield	11	2	4	5	-3	10
21	Preston	11	2	3	6	-7	9
22	Derby	12	1	5	6	-6	8
23	Barnsley	11	0	5	6	-11	5
24	Peterboro	11	1	0	10	-25	3
25	Peterborough	11	1	0	10	-25	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.