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Championship
Referee: A Kitchen
Preston
S S T U S
0–0
Full-time
Burnley
U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Burnley
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 25%
50%
0%
Average goals
1,7
1,5
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
0,7
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 31/32 matches
Win Ø 41%
29%
53%
Points per game
1,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 32%
45%
19%
Both score Ø 40%
58%
22%
Average goals
2,3
1,5
Scored
1,1
1,2
Conceded
1,2
0,3
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+0,9
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,24 xG 1,00
43% Possession 57%
5 Shots 11
1 Shots on target 2
1 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 6
5 Offside 1
18 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Preston 15. · Burnley 2.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leeds 32 20 9 3 +47 +41.0 69
2 Burnley 32 17 13 2 +30 +8.8 64
3 Sheffield United 30 19 6 5 +21 +11.8 63
4 Sunderland 30 17 10 3 +22 +12.0 61
5 Blackburn 32 14 6 12 +6 -0.1 48
6 West Brom 32 11 14 7 +11 +6.7 47
7 Bristol City 31 11 12 8 +5 +5.0 45
8 Sheffield Weds 32 12 9 11 -3 -2.6 45
9 Middlesbrough 31 12 8 11 +8 +13.4 44
10 QPR 33 11 11 11 -2 -4.7 44
11 Norwich 32 11 10 11 +6 +7.4 43
12 Coventry 31 12 7 12 +2 +16.5 43
13 Watford 32 12 6 14 -6 -11.0 42
14 Millwall 31 10 10 11 -1 +3.9 40
15 Preston 31 9 13 9 -4 -0.5 40
16 Oxford 32 9 11 12 -11 -14.9 38
17 Swansea 32 10 7 15 -10 -2.9 37
18 Portsmouth 32 8 9 15 -16 -12.0 33
19 Stoke 31 7 11 13 -11 -17.0 32
20 Cardiff 31 7 10 14 -19 -15.0 31
21 Hull 31 7 8 16 -11 -5.3 29
22 Derby 33 7 8 18 -13 -6.0 29
23 Plymouth 31 6 10 15 -30 -27.8 28
24 Luton 31 7 6 18 -21 -6.7 27

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Preston Burnley
-5′
🟨 Ashley Barnes
Half-time 0–0
Ryan Porteous 🟨
53′
71′
🔁 M. Edwards
↦ L. Foster
71′
🔁 J. Brownhill
↦ H. Mejbri
S. Greenwood 🔁
↦ R. Ledson
73′
E. Riis 🔁
↦ M. Osmajić
77′
78′
🟨 Zian Flemming
Andrew Hughes 🟨
80′
R. Brady 🔁
↦ J. Meghoma
92′
W. Keane 🔁
↦ M. Frøkjær-Jensen
93′
97′
🟨 Jaidon Anthony
Full-time 0–0

Line-ups

Preston

3-5-2
1 F. Woodman G
2 R. Porteous D
19 L. Gibson D
16 A. Hughes D
29 K. Kesler-Hayden M
18 R. Ledson M
22 S. Þórðarson M
44 B. Potts M
3 J. Meghoma M
10 M. Frøkjær-Jensen F
28 M. Osmajić F
Bench (9)
20 S. Greenwood
9 E. Riis
7 W. Keane
11 R. Brady
26 P. Bauer
6 L. Lindsay
32 K. Pasiek
13 D. Cornell
12 C. Evans

Coach: P. Heckingbottom

Burnley

4-2-3-1
1 J. Trafford G
14 C. Roberts D
6 C. Egan-Riley D
5 M. Estève D
12 B. Humphreys D
29 J. Laurent M
24 J. Cullen M
11 J. Anthony M
28 H. Mejbri M
17 L. Foster M
19 Z. Flemming F
Bench (9)
22 M. Edwards
8 J. Brownhill
26 J. Shelvey
4 J. Worrall
35 A. Barnes
7 J. Sarmiento
10 Manuel Benson
23 Lucas Pires
32 V. Hladký

Coach: S. Parker

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,86
U ✓
3,08
B
2,13
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,78
U2,5 ✓
1,43
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

A Kitchen · 82 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.