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Copa del Rey

Referee: Fernando Moreno

Ursaria

1–2

Full-time

Cayón

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
2	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Celta	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Eibar	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Buñol	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Las Palmas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Deportivo Murcia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Hernán Cortés	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Almeria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Girona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Tardienta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Boiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Barbastro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Atlético Astorga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Valle Egüés	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Arenteiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
29	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
30	Atlético Lugones	2	1	0	1	-5	3
31	Rubí	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
36	Cadiz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
37	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
38	Cartagena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
39	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
45	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
46	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
56	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
57	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0
58	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
59	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
60	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
61	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
62	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
63	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
64	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
65	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hernán Cortés	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Tardienta	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Barbastro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Atlético Astorga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Valle Egüés	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Turégano	2	1	0	1	-2	3
7	Quintanar	2	1	0	1	-2	3
8	Rubí	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Ucam Murcia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Badalona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Azuaga	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Cacereño	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Real Jaén	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	San Roque Lepe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Pradejón	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Náxara	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Navalcarnero	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Mijas Las Lagunas	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Monte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Compostela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Antoniano	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Real Avilés	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Melilla CD	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Mensajero	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	CF Talavera	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Llerenense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Ceuta 6 de Junio	1	0	0	1	-3	0
28	Manacor	1	0	0	1	-3	0
29	Varea	1	0	0	1	-3	0
30	Peña Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
31	Lorca Deportiva	1	0	0	1	-4	0
32	Atlético Lugones	1	0	0	1	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+6	3
2	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+4	3
3	Celta	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Eibar	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Buñol	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	Las Palmas	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+3	3
8	Levante	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Deportivo Murcia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Espanol	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Almeria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Leganes	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Castellon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Eldense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Girona	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	Atlético Lugones	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	Melilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	Alcorcon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Chiclana	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Boiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Tenerife	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Lugo	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Arenteiro	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Rotlet Molinar	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Linares Deportivo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Cadiz	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Cartagena	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Zirauki	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Unión Zona Norte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Ponferradina	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Andorra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Teruel	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Santurtzi	1	0	0	1	-2	0
34	Sauzal	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ursaria Cayón

22′

⚽ David Sanz 0–1

1–1 Christian Díaz ⚽

Adrián López

29′

Half-time 1–1

Jacobo Alcalde 🔁

↦ Hugo García

46′

F. Perez 🟨

62′

A. Lopez 🟨

64′

72′

⚽ Héctor Alonso 1–2

Jesús Villar

Álvaro López 🔁

↦ Víctor Higuera

73′

Koke San José 🔁

↦ Malote

73′

Pedro Martínez 🔁

↦ Pablo Jordán

79′

Vere 🔁

↦ Adrián López

79′

81′

🟨 G. Fernandez Gomez

81′

🔁 Javier Turrado

↦ Carlos Cagigas

89′

🔁 Álvaro Mier

↦ Alberto Montiel

Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Ursaria

22 Adrián Quintela

4 Pablo Villalón

21 Víctor Higuera

3 Adrián López

8 Borja Pascual

14 Malote

16 Pablo Rojo

7 Christian Díaz

17 Pablo Jordán

19 Fran Pérez

11 Hugo García

Bench (7)

9 Jacobo Alcalde

5 Álvaro López

15 Koke San José

6 Pedro Martínez

20 Vere

18 Martín Pérez

1 Carlos Sanz

Coach: Josélu

Cayón

1 Pablo Galnares

19 Alberto Montiel

15 Riki Fernández

2 Gabi Fernández

18 Héctor Alonso

7 Carlos Cagigas

6 David Sanz

5 H. Ishida

9 Álex Cañizo

20 Dani Salas

11 Jesús Villar

Bench (7)

14 Javier Turrado

4 Álvaro Mier

10 Marcos Sáez

17 Álvaro Raba

13 Mario Canales

3 Álvaro Díez

8 Chili

Coach: Luis Fernández

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

–

🔒

–

🔒

B ✓

–

🔒

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

–

🔒

U1,5

–

🔒

O2,5 ✓

–

🔒

U2,5

–

🔒

O3,5

–

🔒

U3,5 ✓

–

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja ✓

–

🔒

BLS nei

–

🔒

Recent matches

No matches played yet.

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.

How the model saw the match

How the model assessed the goals markets

Most likely result

Match report

Line-ups

Ursaria

Cayón

Odds comparison

Recent matches