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Bundesliga
Referee: P Ittrich
Hertha
T U T U T
1–6
Full-time
RB Leipzig
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hertha RB Leipzig
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,2
3,3
Scored
1,2
2,2
Conceded
2,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,0
This season — Bundesliga · 22/22 matches
Win Ø 36%
27%
45%
Points per game
1,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
64%
55%
Both score Ø 62%
64%
59%
Average goals
3,1
3,2
Scored
1,1
2,0
Conceded
2,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

36% Possession 64%
8 Shots 18
4 Shots on target 10
0 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 10
0 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 8
2 Yellow cards 3
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hertha 15. · RB Leipzig 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 23 18 1 4 +48 55
2 Dortmund 23 16 1 6 +27 49
3 Leverkusen 23 12 5 6 +21 41
4 Hoffenheim 23 11 4 8 +10 37
5 Freiburg 23 10 7 6 +10 37
6 FC Koln 23 9 8 6 -2 35
7 RB Leipzig 22 10 4 8 +16 34
8 Mainz 23 10 4 9 +8 34
9 Union Berlin 23 9 7 7 -2 34
10 Ein Frankfurt 23 8 7 8 -2 31
11 Bochum 23 8 5 10 -8 29
12 Wolfsburg 23 8 3 12 -11 27
13 M'gladbach 23 7 5 11 -16 26
14 Bielefeld 23 5 10 8 -7 25
15 Hertha 22 6 5 11 -21 23
16 Augsburg 23 5 7 11 -15 22
17 Stuttgart 23 4 7 12 -16 19
18 Greuther Furth 23 3 4 16 -40 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hertha RB Leipzig
20′
B. Henrichs 0–1
Marco Richter 🟨
25′
34′
🟨 Joško Gvardiol
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 L. Klostermann
↦ M. Simakan
1–1 S. Jovetić
S. Ascacíbar
48′
60′
🔁 Dani Olmo
↦ D. Szoboszlai
60′
🔁 K. Laimer
↦ E. Forsberg
Marc-Oliver Kempf 🟥
62′
64′
🟨 Christopher Nkunku
64′
C. Nkunku 1–2
67′
C. Nkunku 1–3
Dani Olmo
M. Maolida 🔁
↦ S. Jovetić
70′
70′
🔁 André Silva
↦ C. Nkunku
74′
Dani Olmo 1–4
D. Selke 🔁
↦ M. Richter
76′
A. Kade 🔁
↦ I. Belfodil
76′
80′
🔁 T. Adams
↦ B. Henrichs
81′
A. Haïdara 1–5
T. Adams
84′
🟨 Amadou Haidara
Santiago Ascacibar 🟨
85′
Santiago Ascacibar 🟥
VAR: Red card cancelled
85′
88′
Y. Poulsen 1–6
Dani Olmo
Full-time 1–6

Line-ups

Hertha

4-3-3
1 A. Schwolow G
2 P. Pekarík D
20 M. Kempf D
3 F. Bjørkan D
44 L. Gechter D
6 V. Darida M
29 L. Tousart M
18 S. Ascacíbar M
19 S. Jovetić F
14 I. Belfodil F
23 M. Richter F
Bench (7)
11 M. Maolida
7 D. Selke
46 A. Kade
34 C. Röcker
39 J. Albrecht
37 M. Lotka
49 C. Atemona

Coach: T. Korkut

RB Leipzig

3-1-4-2
1 P. Gulácsi G
4 W. Orban D
39 B. Henrichs M
22 N. Mukiele M
2 M. Simakan D
32 J. Gvardiol D
10 E. Forsberg M
18 C. Nkunku F
8 A. Haïdara M
17 D. Szoboszlai M
9 Y. Poulsen F
Bench (9)
16 L. Klostermann
25 Dani Olmo
27 K. Laimer
33 André Silva
14 T. Adams
44 K. Kampl
31 Josep Martínez
38 Hugo Novoa
13 P. Tschauner

Coach: D. Tedesco

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
6,15
U
4,29
B ✓
1,55
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,68
U2,5
2,21
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

P Ittrich · 74 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.