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Premier League

Referee: R Jones

Aston Villa

T U S U T

0–1

Full-time

Watford

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,2

1,5

Scored

1,3

0,2

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 26%

35%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

61%

48%

Both score Ø 53%

57%

48%

Average goals

2,9

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

20 Shots 8

1 Shots on target 4

8 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

10 Corners 5

12 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 12. · Watford 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	25	20	3	2	+47	63
2	Liverpool	24	16	6	2	+42	54
3	Chelsea	24	13	8	3	+30	47
4	Man United	25	12	7	6	+8	43
5	West Ham	26	12	6	8	+11	42
6	Arsenal	22	12	3	7	+9	39
7	Wolves	23	11	4	8	+4	37
8	Tottenham	22	11	3	8	-1	36
9	Brighton	24	7	12	5	+0	33
10	Southampton	24	6	11	7	-7	29
11	Leicester	22	7	6	9	-5	27
12	Aston Villa	23	8	3	12	-5	27
13	Crystal Palace	24	5	11	8	-3	26
14	Brentford	25	6	6	13	-14	24
15	Leeds	23	5	8	10	-19	23
16	Everton	22	6	4	12	-10	22
17	Newcastle	24	4	10	10	-19	22
18	Norwich	24	4	5	15	-36	17
19	Watford	23	4	3	16	-20	15
20	Burnley	21	1	11	9	-12	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	12	10	1	1	+28	31
2	Liverpool	11	8	3	0	+21	27
3	Chelsea	12	6	5	1	+17	23
4	Arsenal	11	7	2	2	+10	23
5	Man United	13	7	2	4	+5	23
6	Tottenham	12	7	1	4	+3	22
7	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+5	21
8	Leicester	12	5	3	4	+3	18
9	Crystal Palace	12	4	5	3	+6	17
10	Southampton	11	3	7	1	+4	16
11	Everton	11	5	1	5	+1	16
12	Aston Villa	11	4	3	4	+1	15
13	Newcastle	13	3	6	4	-6	15
14	Brighton	11	3	5	3	-1	14
15	Wolves	11	4	2	5	-1	14
16	Brentford	13	4	2	7	-3	14
17	Leeds	11	3	4	4	-4	13
18	Burnley	10	1	6	3	-1	9
19	Norwich	13	2	3	8	-17	9
20	Watford	12	2	1	9	-16	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	13	10	2	1	+19	32
2	Liverpool	13	8	3	2	+21	27
3	Chelsea	12	7	3	2	+13	24
4	Wolves	12	7	2	3	+5	23
5	West Ham	13	6	3	4	+6	21
6	Man United	12	5	5	2	+3	20
7	Brighton	13	4	7	2	+1	19
8	Arsenal	11	5	1	5	-1	16
9	Tottenham	10	4	2	4	-4	14
10	Southampton	13	3	4	6	-11	13
11	Aston Villa	12	4	0	8	-6	12
12	Brentford	12	2	4	6	-11	10
13	Leeds	12	2	4	6	-15	10
14	Leicester	10	2	3	5	-8	9
15	Crystal Palace	12	1	6	5	-9	9
16	Watford	11	2	2	7	-4	8
17	Norwich	11	2	2	7	-19	8
18	Newcastle	11	1	4	6	-13	7
19	Everton	11	1	3	7	-11	6
20	Burnley	11	0	5	6	-11	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.