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Referee: Isa Simsek

S S S U S

3–0

Full-time

S U T S U

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salzburg Sturm Graz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

50%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

0,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,2

xG conceded Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

2,5

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,3

xG conceded Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

15 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 8

2 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Salzburg 3. · Sturm Graz 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	SK Rapid	7	6	0	1	+14	+6.6	18
2	LASK	7	5	1	1	+12	+8.6	16
3	Salzburg	6	4	2	0	+11	+7.5	14
4	Sturm Graz	6	3	2	1	+2	+2.4	11
5	Ried	7	2	2	3	-1	-0.6	8
6	Hartberg	7	2	2	3	-3	-4.3	8
7	Tirol	7	2	2	3	-3	-1.7	8
8	A. Lustenau	7	2	2	3	-3	-3.2	8
9	Grazer AK	7	2	2	3	-10	-3.3	8
10	Austria Vienna	7	2	1	4	-6	-6.2	7
11	Wolfsberger AC	7	1	2	4	-6	-4.1	5
12	Altach	7	1	0	6	-7	-1.6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	SK Rapid	4	4	0	0	+14	+6.3	12
2	LASK	3	3	0	0	+9	+5.4	9
3	Salzburg	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.2	9
4	Ried	4	2	1	1	+3	+0.2	7
5	Sturm Graz	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.2	7
6	A. Lustenau	4	2	1	1	-1	-1.2	7
7	Grazer AK	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.9	5
8	Wolfsberger AC	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.4	4
9	Hartberg	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.4	4
10	Altach	3	1	0	2	+0	+1.5	3
11	Austria Vienna	3	1	0	2	-2	-3.2	3
12	Tirol	3	0	2	1	-3	-2.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	LASK	4	2	1	1	+3	+3.2	7
2	SK Rapid	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.3	6
3	Tirol	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.5	6
4	Salzburg	3	1	2	0	+3	+3.2	5
5	Sturm Graz	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.1	4
6	Hartberg	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.9	4
7	Austria Vienna	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.9	4
8	Grazer AK	4	1	0	3	-11	-6.2	3
9	A. Lustenau	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.1	1
10	Ried	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.8	1
11	Wolfsberger AC	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.8	1
12	Altach	4	0	0	4	-7	-3.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

3. May -26 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 1–1 20. Mar -26 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 1–1 9. Nov -25 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 1–1 20. Sep -25 Salzburg – Sturm Graz 0–2 9. May -25 Sturm Graz – Salzburg 4–2

Match report

Salzburg Sturm Graz

Half-time 0–0

Sota Kitano 🔁

↦ Damir Redzic

52′

Yorbe Vertessen 🔁

↦ Karim Konate

53′

Aboubacar Sidiki Camara 🔁

↦ Edmund Baidoo

53′

58′

🔁 Oumar Diakité

↦ Axel Kayombo

Umut Deger Tohumcu 🔁

↦ Abubakr Barry

66′

66′

🔁 Filip Rozga Kucharczyk

↦ Valmir Matoshi

66′

🔁 Otar Kiteishvili

↦ Simon Seidl

1–0 Nikolas Veratschnig ⚽

Bartosz Mazurek

71′

72′

🟨 Jurgen Heil

76′

🟥 Jurgen Heil

2–0 Kevin Boma ⚽

Dominik Schmid

76′

79′

🟨 Paul Koller

3–0 Aboubacar Sidiki Camara ⚽

Sota Kitano

83′

84′

🔁 Petar Petrović

↦ Arjan Malić

84′

🔁 Gizo Mamageishvili

↦ Luca Weinhandl

Frans Kratzig 🔁

↦ Bartosz Mazurek

86′

Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Salzburg

4-2-3-1

52

Christian Zawieschitzky G

18

N. Veratschnig D

44

K. Boma D

47

Valentin Zabransky D

31

D. Schmid D

32

A. Barry M

15

B. Mazurek M

20

E. Baidoo M

19

K. Konaté M

23

D. Redzic M

9

H. Tabaković F

Bench (9)

33 A. Camara

1 C. Früchtl

35 J. Lindstrøm

8 S. Kitano

13 F. Krätzig

39 L. Morgalla

7 U. Tohumcu

11 Y. Vertessen

21 T. Drexler

Coach: D. Röhl

Sturm Graz

4-2-3-1

53

D. Khudyakov G

23

A. Malic D

2

J. Quarshie D

30

P. Koller D

28

J. Heil D

39

Luca Weinhandl M

4

J. Gorenc Stankovič M

78

V. Matoshi M

19

S. Seidl M

43

Jacob Peter Hödl M

11

A. Kayombo F

Bench (9)

26 B. Beganović

14 O. Diakité

6 G. Haider

22 A. Helac

10 O. Kiteishvili

15 G. Mamageishvili

21 P. Petrović

27 L. Balbo

8 F. Rózga

Coach: F. Ingolitsch

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2

H ✓

1,57

🔒

Pinnacle 1,61 Bet365 1,60 SBO 1,58 1xBet 1,57 Betano 1,57 Betfair 1,57 BetVictor 1,57 William Hill 1,57 Marathonbet 1,55

U

4,50

🔒

Pinnacle 4,66 BetVictor 4,60 Bet365 4,50 Betano 4,50 Betfair 4,50 1xBet 4,45 Marathonbet 4,45 SBO 4,21 William Hill 4,20

B

4,75

🔒

Pinnacle 4,94 Marathonbet 4,90 1xBet 4,82 BetVictor 4,80 Bet365 4,75 Betano 4,65 Betfair 4,60 William Hill 4,60 SBO 4,29

Over/under goals

O1,5 ✓

1,10

🔒

U1,5

6,50

🔒

O2,5 ✓

1,36

🔒

U2,5

3,08

🔒

O3,5

1,90

🔒

U3,5 ✓

1,84

🔒

Both teams to score

BLS ja

1,42

🔒

BLS nei ✓

2,62

🔒

Recent matches

17. Sep EL 5 days ago

11. Sep BL 1 week ago

2. Sep BL 2 weeks ago

30. Aug BL 3 weeks ago

27. Aug EL 3 weeks ago

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.