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Bundesliga

Referee: Harm Osmers

Hoffenheim

U T S U T

1–2

Full-time

Mainz

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 41%

56%

26%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

67%

52%

Both score Ø 61%

63%

59%

Average goals

3,4

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,16 xG 2,19

60% Possession 40%

16 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 3

0 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 5

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 5. · Mainz 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	27	22	4	1	+72	+50.9	70
2	Dortmund	27	18	7	2	+30	+21.2	61
3	Stuttgart	27	16	5	6	+20	+8.2	53
4	RB Leipzig	27	15	5	7	+18	+13.4	50
5	Hoffenheim	27	15	5	7	+15	+3.5	50
6	Leverkusen	27	13	7	7	+16	+14.7	46
7	Ein Frankfurt	27	10	8	9	-1	-2.2	38
8	Freiburg	27	10	7	10	-5	+5.0	37
9	Union Berlin	27	8	7	12	-15	-7.9	31
10	Augsburg	27	9	4	14	-17	-16.4	31
11	Mainz	27	7	9	11	-9	-7.2	30
12	Hamburg	27	7	9	11	-9	-15.2	30
13	M'gladbach	27	7	8	12	-13	-5.9	29
14	Werder Bremen	27	7	7	13	-17	-7.4	28
15	FC Koln	27	6	8	13	-9	-5.8	26
16	St Pauli	27	6	6	15	-20	-16.8	24
17	Wolfsburg	27	5	6	16	-22	-14.7	21
18	Heidenheim	27	3	6	18	-34	-17.4	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	12	1	1	+43	+30.5	37
2	Dortmund	14	11	2	1	+20	+17.3	35
3	Stuttgart	13	10	2	1	+10	+6.2	32
4	RB Leipzig	14	9	2	3	+16	+9.0	29
5	Hoffenheim	13	8	1	4	+13	+7.2	25
6	Freiburg	13	7	4	2	+8	+11.6	25
7	Leverkusen	13	7	3	3	+14	+14.9	24
8	Ein Frankfurt	13	7	2	4	+5	+4.4	23
9	Augsburg	14	6	3	5	-5	-8.3	21
10	Hamburg	14	5	5	4	+3	-2.0	20
11	Mainz	14	4	5	5	+0	+4.9	17
12	Union Berlin	13	4	5	4	-3	+1.8	17
13	FC Koln	14	4	4	6	+1	+0.9	16
14	M'gladbach	13	4	4	5	-5	-1.2	16
15	St Pauli	13	4	4	5	-6	-3.5	16
16	Werder Bremen	13	4	4	5	-9	+3.3	16
17	Heidenheim	14	2	5	7	-16	-9.2	11
18	Wolfsburg	14	2	3	9	-9	-2.0	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	10	3	0	+29	+20.4	33
2	Dortmund	13	7	5	1	+10	+3.8	26
3	Hoffenheim	14	7	4	3	+2	-3.7	25
4	Leverkusen	14	6	4	4	+2	-0.2	22
5	Stuttgart	14	6	3	5	+10	+2.0	21
6	RB Leipzig	13	6	3	4	+2	+4.4	21
7	Ein Frankfurt	14	3	6	5	-6	-6.5	15
8	Union Berlin	14	4	2	8	-12	-9.7	14
9	M'gladbach	14	3	4	7	-8	-4.7	13
10	Mainz	13	3	4	6	-9	-12.1	13
11	Werder Bremen	14	3	3	8	-8	-10.7	12
12	Freiburg	14	3	3	8	-13	-6.6	12
13	Wolfsburg	13	3	3	7	-13	-12.7	12
14	FC Koln	13	2	4	7	-10	-6.8	10
15	Augsburg	13	3	1	9	-12	-8.1	10
16	Hamburg	13	2	4	7	-12	-13.2	10
17	St Pauli	14	2	2	10	-14	-13.3	8
18	Heidenheim	13	1	1	11	-18	-8.2	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.