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Bundesliga

Referee: F Willenborg

Hertha

T U T T T

2–1

Full-time

Paderborn

T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hertha Paderborn

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/4 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 88%

100%

75%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

4,3

Scored

1,3

Conceded

3,0

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-1,8

This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 88%

100%

75%

Both score Ø 75%

50%

100%

Average goals

3,3

4,3

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

2,5

3,0

Goal diff per game

-1,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

38% Possession 62%

6 Shots 18

4 Shots on target 8

0 Blocked shots 3

7 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 8

3 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 14

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hertha 18. · Paderborn 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Schalke 04	5	3	1	1	+5	10
3	Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+8	9
4	Freiburg	4	3	0	1	+7	9
5	Bayern Munich	4	2	2	0	+8	8
6	Wolfsburg	4	2	2	0	+4	8
7	M'gladbach	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	-1	7
9	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Werder Bremen	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Union Berlin	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	-4	4
15	FC Koln	4	1	0	3	-3	3
16	Mainz	5	1	0	4	-10	3
17	Paderborn	4	0	1	3	-7	1
18	Hertha	4	0	1	3	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+1	6
4	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+5	4
5	Augsburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Wolfsburg	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	RB Leipzig	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	+2	3
10	Werder Bremen	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Mainz	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	-3	3
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	2	0	1	1	-2	1
15	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	FC Koln	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Hertha	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Paderborn	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	M'gladbach	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Schalke 04	2	1	1	0	+4	4
5	Wolfsburg	2	1	1	0	+3	4
6	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Fortuna Dusseldorf	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Dortmund	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Werder Bremen	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	FC Koln	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Leverkusen	2	1	0	1	-2	3
12	Union Berlin	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Paderborn	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Hoffenheim	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Hertha	3	0	1	2	-4	1
16	Ein Frankfurt	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-5	0
18	Mainz	3	0	0	3	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.