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Eredivisie

Referee: Jeroen Manschot

Twente

T S U U U

1–0

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Twente AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,7

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 43%

31%

54%

Points per game

1,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

54%

77%

Both score Ø 73%

69%

77%

Average goals

3,1

3,6

Scored

1,6

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,04 xG 1,31

51% Possession 49%

7 Shots 7

2 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

3 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Twente 9. · AZ Alkmaar 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	14	12	1	1	+27	+13.9	37
2	Feyenoord	14	10	1	3	+18	+19.0	31
3	Nijmegen	14	7	3	4	+13	+5.9	24
4	AZ Alkmaar	13	7	3	3	+5	+8.3	24
5	Utrecht	13	6	2	5	+6	-1.5	20
6	Ajax	13	5	5	3	+4	+2.8	20
7	Groningen	13	6	2	5	+0	+5.1	20
8	For Sittard	14	5	3	6	-2	-5.6	18
9	Twente	13	4	5	4	+2	+11.1	17
10	Go Ahead Eagles	14	4	5	5	-1	-6.4	17
11	Sparta Rotterdam	14	5	2	7	-12	-5.9	17
12	Heerenveen	13	4	4	5	-1	+10.5	16
13	Excelsior	14	5	1	8	-10	-9.2	16
14	Zwolle	14	4	4	6	-12	-12.3	16
15	Volendam	14	3	5	6	-7	-11.2	14
16	Heracles	14	4	1	9	-14	-11.7	13
17	NAC Breda	14	3	3	8	-8	-6.3	12
18	Telstar	14	2	4	8	-8	-6.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	+12	+8.9	16
2	Nijmegen	7	5	1	1	+11	+6.4	16
3	Utrecht	6	5	0	1	+10	+3.7	15
4	Feyenoord	7	5	0	2	+5	+11.1	15
5	For Sittard	7	4	2	1	+4	+2.6	14
6	Ajax	7	4	1	2	+4	+5.3	13
7	Volendam	7	3	3	1	+4	-0.4	12
8	Heerenveen	7	3	3	1	+3	+8.8	12
9	Go Ahead Eagles	7	3	3	1	+3	-0.2	12
10	Groningen	7	3	2	2	+4	+4.8	11
11	AZ Alkmaar	6	3	2	1	+3	+4.4	11
12	NAC Breda	7	3	1	3	+0	+3.1	10
13	Zwolle	7	3	1	3	-5	-3.1	10
14	Heracles	6	3	0	3	+0	-1.8	9
15	Excelsior	7	3	0	4	-1	-4.2	9
16	Twente	6	2	2	2	-1	+6.9	8
17	Sparta Rotterdam	7	2	2	3	-7	-3.2	8
18	Telstar	8	1	3	4	-4	+0.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	7	0	0	+15	+5.0	21
2	Feyenoord	7	5	1	1	+13	+7.9	16
3	AZ Alkmaar	7	4	1	2	+2	+3.9	13
4	Twente	7	2	3	2	+3	+4.2	9
5	Groningen	6	3	0	3	-4	+0.3	9
6	Sparta Rotterdam	7	3	0	4	-5	-2.7	9
7	Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	+2	-0.4	8
8	Ajax	6	1	4	1	+0	-2.5	7
9	Excelsior	7	2	1	4	-9	-5.0	7
10	Zwolle	7	1	3	3	-7	-9.2	6
11	Go Ahead Eagles	7	1	2	4	-4	-6.1	5
12	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	-4	-5.2	5
13	Heerenveen	6	1	1	4	-4	+1.7	4
14	Telstar	6	1	1	4	-4	-6.8	4
15	For Sittard	7	1	1	5	-6	-8.2	4
16	Heracles	8	1	1	6	-14	-9.9	4
17	NAC Breda	7	0	2	5	-8	-9.4	2
18	Volendam	7	0	2	5	-11	-10.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.