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Super League
Referee: F San
Basel
T S S T T
2–2
Full-time
Zurich
S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Basel Zurich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
4,0
3,2
Scored
1,8
2,2
Conceded
2,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 4/5 matches
Win Ø 43%
25%
60%
Points per game
0,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 80%
100%
60%
Both score Ø 70%
100%
40%
Average goals
4,3
2,8
Scored
2,0
2,2
Conceded
2,3
0,6
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+1,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

58% Possession 42%
17 Shots 12
6 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 1
0 Offside 1
9 Free kicks against 16
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Basel 12. · Zurich 1. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Zurich 5 3 2 0 +8 – 11
2 Young Boys 5 3 2 0 +5 +0.7 11
3 St. Gallen 6 3 2 1 +2 +1.9 11
4 Lugano 4 3 0 1 +6 +2.6 9
5 Luzern 5 2 2 1 +1 +0.7 8
6 Winterthur 6 2 2 2 -1 -1.3 8
7 Yverdon 6 2 2 2 -3 -3.1 8
8 Servette 6 1 3 2 -2 -2.3 6
9 Grasshoppers 6 1 1 4 -4 -0.9 4
10 Lausanne 6 1 1 4 -5 +1.4 4
11 Lausanne Ouchy 5 1 1 3 -6 +0.3 4
12 Basel 4 1 0 3 -1 +0.1 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Basel Zurich
43′
🟨 Daniel Afriyie
45′
⚽ A. Barišić 1–0
own goal
Half-time 1–1
48′
⚽ J. Okita 1–1
A. Marchesano
T. Xhaka 🔁
↦ F. Frei
59′
J. Gauto 🔁
↦ M. Malone
59′
59′
🔁 S. Wallner
↦ F. Daprelà
G. Sigua 🔁
↦ T. Barry
70′
71′
🔁 Rodrigo Conceição
↦ A. Marchesano
71′
🔁 F. Rohner
↦ D. Afriyie
2–1 Renato Veiga ⚽
73′
Gabriel Sigua 🟨
78′
M. Lang 🔁
↦ M. Dräger
80′
Jonathan Dubasin 🔁
↦ Y. Demir
80′
87′
🔁 I. Santini
↦ J. Okita
93′
🟨 Ivan Santini
3–1 G. Sigua ⚽
95′
Taulant Xhaka 🟨
96′
Finn van Breemen 🟨
98′
98′
🟨 Adrián Guerrero
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Basel

4-2-3-1
1 M. Hitz G
6 M. Dräger D
26 A. Barišić D
25 F. van Breemen D
31 D. Schmid D
20 F. Frei M
40 Renato Veiga M
11 M. Malone M
19 Y. Demir M
9 T. Barry M
99 Đ. Jovanović F
Bench (9)
34 T. Xhaka
33 J. Gauto
21 G. Sigua
5 M. Lang
8 Jonathan Dubasin
13 M. Salvi
18 E. Essiam
37 L. Avdullahu
32 J. Adjetey

Coach: T. Schultz

Zurich

4-4-2
25 Y. Brecher G
2 L. Kamberi D
24 N. Katić D
5 F. Daprelà D
3 Adrián Guerrero D
19 N. Boranijašević M
12 I. Mathew M
17 C. Conde M
11 J. Okita M
10 A. Marchesano F
18 D. Afriyie F
Bench (9)
4 S. Wallner
27 Rodrigo Conceição
23 F. Rohner
9 I. Santini
31 M. Kryeziu
1 Ž. Kostadinović
22 A. Oko-Flex
7 B. Krasniqi
16 M. Hornschuh

Coach: B. Henriksen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
–
U ✓
–
B
–
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
O2,5 ✓
–
O3,5 ✓
–
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
BLS nei
–

Referee

F San · 137 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.