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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Liverpool

U U U S S

3–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,7

4,2

Scored

2,3

3,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

67%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,0

4,7

Scored

2,0

2,7

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,47 xG 0,66

64% Possession 36%

17 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 3

6 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 5. · Aston Villa 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	4	4	0	0	+9	+6.3	12
2	Tottenham	4	3	1	0	+7	+1.0	10
3	West Ham	4	3	1	0	+5	+0.3	10
4	Brighton	4	3	0	1	+6	+0.9	9
5	Liverpool	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.6	7
6	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.3	7
7	Brentford	4	1	3	0	+3	+5.4	6
8	Aston Villa	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.7	6
9	Nott'm Forest	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.9	6
10	Man United	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.8	6
11	Chelsea	4	1	1	2	+0	+4.1	4
12	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.2	4
13	Fulham	4	1	1	2	-6	-8.2	4
14	Newcastle	4	1	0	3	+0	+1.9	3
15	Wolves	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.2	3
16	Bournemouth	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.7	2
17	Sheffield United	4	0	1	3	-3	-6.6	1
18	Everton	4	0	1	3	-6	+0.5	1
19	Luton	3	0	0	3	-7	-3.9	0
20	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.6	6
2	Brighton	3	2	0	1	+3	+0.9	6
3	Man United	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
4	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	+2	+3.4	4
5	Arsenal	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.3	4
6	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+4	+2.4	3
7	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+3	+2.8	3
8	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
9	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.7	3
10	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.3	3
11	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.9	3
12	Brentford	3	0	3	0	+0	+1.9	3
13	Sheffield United	3	0	1	2	-2	-5.7	1
14	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.1	1
15	Luton	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
16	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
17	Everton	2	0	0	2	-2	+1.5	0
18	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.1	0
19	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.5	0
20	Burnley	3	0	0	3	-8	-4.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	3	2	1	0	+5	+1.4	7
2	West Ham	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.0	7
3	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	+4.7	6
4	Liverpool	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.2	4
5	Crystal Palace	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
6	Fulham	3	1	1	1	-3	-4.7	4
7	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.1	3
8	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.5	3
9	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
10	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
11	Nott'm Forest	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.8	3
12	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	-2	+0.3	3
13	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.6	1
14	Everton	2	0	1	1	-4	-1.0	1
15	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.9	0
16	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.7	0
17	Man United	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.3	0
18	Newcastle	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.9	0
19	Luton	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.