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Ligue 1

Referee: B Millot

Lille

U S S T U

1–0

Full-time

Montpellier

T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

2,7

4,2

Scored

1,3

2,5

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,0

4,3

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,18 xG 0,26

60% Possession 40%

15 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 5

0 Offside 5

15 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lille 11. · Montpellier 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+8	+3.8	10
2	Marseille	4	2	2	0	+3	+4.8	8
3	Brest	4	2	1	1	+0	+1.3	7
4	Rennes	4	1	3	0	+4	+6.1	6
5	Reims	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.1	6
6	Strasbourg	3	2	0	1	+0	+2.0	6
7	Lorient	3	1	2	0	+3	-1.6	5
8	Paris SG	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.1	5
9	Toulouse	4	1	2	1	-1	-5.0	5
10	Montpellier	3	1	1	1	+1	+2.6	4
11	Lille	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.1	4
12	Metz	3	1	1	1	-3	-4.8	4
13	Nice	3	0	3	0	+0	+2.5	3
14	Le Havre	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.2	2
15	Nantes	4	0	2	2	-3	-5.4	2
16	Lyon	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.8	1
17	Clermont	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.0	1
18	Lens	4	0	1	3	-6	-3.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.8	6
2	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.7	6
3	Strasbourg	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.6	6
4	Rennes	2	1	1	0	+4	+6.7	4
5	Lorient	2	1	1	0	+3	-0.5	4
6	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.2	4
7	Brest	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.9	4
8	Reims	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.9	3
9	Lille	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
10	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
11	Nice	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.6	2
12	Nantes	3	0	2	1	-1	-4.1	2
13	Metz	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.5	1
14	Lens	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
15	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.1	1
16	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
17	Clermont	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.3	0
18	Lyon	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	2	1	1	0	+2	+3.0	4
2	Montpellier	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
3	Reims	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.2	3
4	Brest	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
5	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.9	3
6	Metz	2	1	0	1	-3	-3.4	3
7	Le Havre	2	0	2	0	+0	-3.3	2
8	Marseille	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.1	2
9	Rennes	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
10	Paris SG	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
11	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
12	Lorient	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
13	Lyon	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
14	Clermont	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
15	Lille	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.2	1
16	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
17	Strasbourg	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.5	0
18	Lens	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.