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Super League

Referee: F San

Basel

S T T S T

1–1

Full-time

Lugano

S S U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Basel Lugano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

1,3

2,5

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 48%

46%

50%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

58%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

63%

Average goals

2,7

2,9

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,55 xG 0,57

44% Possession 56%

10 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 1

0 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Basel 4. · Lugano 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	25	19	1	5	+29	+3.2	58
2	St. Gallen	24	13	4	7	+15	+6.4	43
3	Lugano	24	12	6	6	+11	+0.0	42
4	Basel	24	11	6	7	+7	+12.0	39
5	Sion	25	9	10	6	+7	+4.7	37
6	Young Boys	25	10	6	9	+2	-2.1	36
7	Luzern	25	7	9	9	+1	-2.6	30
8	Lausanne	24	7	8	9	-2	+3.5	29
9	Zurich	25	8	4	13	-12	-0.8	28
10	Servette	24	6	8	10	-7	+4.9	26
11	Grasshoppers	25	4	9	12	-12	-13.6	21
12	Winterthur	24	3	5	16	-39	-15.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	13	9	1	3	+15	+2.4	28
2	Lugano	12	7	3	2	+11	+1.0	24
3	Young Boys	12	7	2	3	+14	+8.0	23
4	St. Gallen	13	7	1	5	+8	+8.6	22
5	Sion	13	6	4	3	+8	+2.4	22
6	Basel	12	5	4	3	+7	+16.1	19
7	Lausanne	12	4	4	4	+3	+8.6	16
8	Zurich	13	5	1	7	-4	+2.7	16
9	Luzern	12	2	5	5	-1	+1.6	11
10	Grasshoppers	12	2	5	5	-1	-4.8	11
11	Servette	12	2	5	5	-5	+1.3	11
12	Winterthur	11	2	3	6	-7	-2.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	12	10	0	2	+14	+0.8	30
2	St. Gallen	11	6	3	2	+7	-2.2	21
3	Basel	12	6	2	4	+0	-4.1	20
4	Luzern	13	5	4	4	+2	-4.3	19
5	Lugano	12	5	3	4	+0	-1.0	18
6	Sion	12	3	6	3	-1	+2.3	15
7	Servette	12	4	3	5	-2	+3.7	15
8	Lausanne	12	3	4	5	-5	-5.1	13
9	Young Boys	13	3	4	6	-12	-10.1	13
10	Zurich	12	3	3	6	-8	-3.5	12
11	Grasshoppers	13	2	4	7	-11	-8.8	10
12	Winterthur	13	1	2	10	-32	-13.2	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.