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Bundesliga

Referee: S Stegemann

Mainz

T U T S T

1–0

Full-time

Union Berlin

U S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

2,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 24%

11%

37%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

53%

58%

Both score Ø 66%

58%

74%

Average goals

3,1

Scored

0,9

1,8

Conceded

2,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%

9 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 1

1 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Mainz 17. · Union Berlin 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	20	15	3	2	+32	48
2	RB Leipzig	19	11	5	3	+15	38
3	Wolfsburg	19	9	8	2	+11	35
4	Ein Frankfurt	19	8	9	2	+10	33
5	Leverkusen	19	9	5	5	+13	32
6	Dortmund	19	10	2	7	+11	32
7	M'gladbach	19	8	8	3	+7	32
8	Union Berlin	19	7	8	4	+10	29
9	Freiburg	19	7	6	6	+1	27
10	Stuttgart	19	6	7	6	+6	25
11	Werder Bremen	19	5	7	7	-3	22
12	Hoffenheim	19	6	4	9	-5	22
13	Augsburg	19	6	4	9	-10	22
14	FC Koln	19	4	6	9	-14	18
15	Hertha	20	4	5	11	-11	17
16	Bielefeld	19	5	2	12	-17	17
17	Mainz	19	2	4	13	-22	10
18	Schalke 04	19	1	5	13	-34	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	10	8	1	1	+13	25
2	Bayern Munich	9	7	2	0	+22	23
3	Wolfsburg	9	6	3	0	+9	21
4	M'gladbach	10	5	4	1	+7	19
5	Union Berlin	10	4	5	1	+9	17
6	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	5	0	+6	17
7	Dortmund	9	5	1	3	+8	16
8	Freiburg	10	4	4	2	+7	16
9	Leverkusen	9	4	3	2	+5	15
10	Bielefeld	10	4	0	6	-6	12
11	Hoffenheim	9	3	2	4	+2	11
12	Augsburg	10	3	2	5	-6	11
13	Werder Bremen	9	2	3	4	-4	9
14	Stuttgart	9	1	5	3	-2	8
15	Hertha	10	2	2	6	-9	8
16	FC Koln	10	1	3	6	-8	6
17	Mainz	10	1	2	7	-10	5
18	Schalke 04	10	1	2	7	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	8	1	2	+10	25
2	Stuttgart	10	5	2	3	+8	17
3	Leverkusen	10	5	2	3	+8	17
4	Ein Frankfurt	10	4	4	2	+4	16
5	Dortmund	10	5	1	4	+3	16
6	Wolfsburg	10	3	5	2	+2	14
7	RB Leipzig	9	3	4	2	+2	13
8	Werder Bremen	10	3	4	3	+1	13
9	M'gladbach	9	3	4	2	+0	13
10	Union Berlin	9	3	3	3	+1	12
11	FC Koln	9	3	3	3	-6	12
12	Augsburg	9	3	2	4	-4	11
13	Freiburg	9	3	2	4	-6	11
14	Hoffenheim	10	3	2	5	-7	11
15	Hertha	10	2	3	5	-2	9
16	Bielefeld	9	1	2	6	-11	5
17	Mainz	9	1	2	6	-12	5
18	Schalke 04	9	0	3	6	-23	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.