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Bundesliga

Referee: M Fritz

Hoffenheim

T T T U U

3–4

Full-time

Freiburg

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 44%

42%

45%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

65%

61%

Both score Ø 58%

55%

61%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

58% Possession 42%

17 Shots 9

7 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 8. · Freiburg 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	24	3	5	+60	75
2	Dortmund	32	20	3	9	+30	63
3	Leverkusen	31	16	7	8	+28	55
4	RB Leipzig	31	16	6	9	+33	54
5	Freiburg	31	14	10	7	+15	52
6	FC Koln	32	14	10	8	+5	52
7	Union Berlin	32	14	9	9	+2	51
8	Hoffenheim	31	13	7	11	+5	46
9	Mainz	32	12	6	14	+4	42
10	Ein Frankfurt	31	10	10	11	-2	40
11	Bochum	32	11	6	15	-14	39
12	Wolfsburg	32	11	5	16	-12	38
13	M'gladbach	31	10	8	13	-13	38
14	Augsburg	32	9	8	15	-14	35
15	Hertha	32	9	6	17	-32	33
16	Stuttgart	32	6	11	15	-19	29
17	Bielefeld	32	5	12	15	-25	27
18	Greuther Furth	32	3	9	20	-51	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	1	2	+33	40
2	Dortmund	16	12	0	4	+23	36
3	Mainz	16	10	4	2	+22	34
4	RB Leipzig	16	10	2	4	+22	32
5	Union Berlin	16	9	5	2	+7	32
6	FC Koln	16	9	4	3	+7	31
7	Freiburg	16	8	5	3	+10	29
8	Hoffenheim	15	8	4	3	+13	28
9	Leverkusen	15	8	2	5	+13	26
10	Bochum	16	7	4	5	+3	25
11	Wolfsburg	16	7	2	7	+4	23
12	M'gladbach	15	6	4	5	+0	22
13	Augsburg	16	6	4	6	-2	22
14	Hertha	16	6	3	7	-8	21
15	Stuttgart	16	5	4	7	-5	19
16	Ein Frankfurt	16	4	6	6	-2	18
17	Bielefeld	16	2	9	5	-8	15
18	Greuther Furth	16	3	5	8	-16	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	11	2	3	+27	35
2	Leverkusen	16	8	5	3	+15	29
3	Dortmund	16	8	3	5	+7	27
4	Freiburg	15	6	5	4	+5	23
5	RB Leipzig	15	6	4	5	+11	22
6	Ein Frankfurt	15	6	4	5	+0	22
7	FC Koln	16	5	6	5	-2	21
8	Union Berlin	16	5	4	7	-5	19
9	Hoffenheim	16	5	3	8	-8	18
10	M'gladbach	16	4	4	8	-13	16
11	Wolfsburg	16	4	3	9	-16	15
12	Bochum	16	4	2	10	-17	14
13	Augsburg	16	3	4	9	-12	13
14	Bielefeld	16	3	3	10	-17	12
15	Hertha	16	3	3	10	-24	12
16	Stuttgart	16	1	7	8	-14	10
17	Mainz	16	2	2	12	-18	8
18	Greuther Furth	16	0	4	12	-35	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.