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Bundesliga

Referee: S Jablonski

Freiburg

T U S T T

1–0

Full-time

Hoffenheim

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

0,8

2,0

Conceded

2,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 45%

40%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 68%

65%

70%

Both score Ø 60%

60%

Average goals

3,0

3,1

Scored

1,5

1,6

Conceded

1,5

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

12 Shots 21

6 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 7

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 10

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 8. · Hoffenheim 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	20	13	3	4	+35	42
2	RB Leipzig	20	12	5	3	+28	41
3	Dortmund	20	11	6	3	+28	39
4	M'gladbach	20	12	3	5	+15	39
5	Leverkusen	20	10	4	6	+7	34
6	Schalke 04	20	9	7	4	+5	34
7	Hoffenheim	20	10	3	7	+0	33
8	Freiburg	20	8	5	7	-1	29
9	Ein Frankfurt	21	8	4	9	+6	28
10	Wolfsburg	20	7	6	7	-1	27
11	Augsburg	21	7	5	9	-11	26
12	Union Berlin	20	7	2	11	-9	23
13	Hertha	20	6	5	9	-10	23
14	FC Koln	20	7	2	11	-11	23
15	Mainz	20	6	0	14	-19	18
16	Werder Bremen	20	4	5	11	-21	17
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	20	4	4	12	-22	16
18	Paderborn	20	4	3	13	-19	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	10	8	1	1	+14	25
2	Dortmund	10	7	3	0	+26	24
3	Bayern Munich	10	7	1	2	+24	22
4	RB Leipzig	10	6	3	1	+16	21
5	Ein Frankfurt	11	6	3	2	+12	21
6	Schalke 04	10	5	4	1	+5	19
7	Union Berlin	10	6	0	4	+3	18
8	Augsburg	10	5	2	3	+4	17
9	Leverkusen	10	4	4	2	+5	16
10	FC Koln	10	5	1	4	+4	16
11	Hoffenheim	11	5	1	5	-5	16
12	Freiburg	9	4	2	3	+1	14
13	Wolfsburg	10	3	4	3	-1	13
14	Hertha	10	3	2	5	-7	11
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	3	2	5	-7	11
16	Mainz	10	3	0	7	-8	9
17	Paderborn	11	2	1	8	-12	7
18	Werder Bremen	9	1	2	6	-14	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	10	6	2	2	+12	20
2	Bayern Munich	10	6	2	2	+11	20
3	Leverkusen	10	6	0	4	+2	18
4	Hoffenheim	9	5	2	2	+5	17
5	Dortmund	10	4	3	3	+2	15
6	Schalke 04	10	4	3	3	+0	15
7	Freiburg	11	4	3	4	-2	15
8	M'gladbach	10	4	2	4	+1	14
9	Wolfsburg	10	4	2	4	+0	14
10	Hertha	10	3	3	4	-3	12
11	Werder Bremen	11	3	3	5	-7	12
12	Mainz	10	3	0	7	-11	9
13	Augsburg	11	2	3	6	-15	9
14	Paderborn	9	2	2	5	-7	8
15	Ein Frankfurt	10	2	1	7	-6	7
16	FC Koln	10	2	1	7	-15	7
17	Union Berlin	10	1	2	7	-12	5
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	1	2	7	-15	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.