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Bundesliga

Referee: M Petersen

Darmstadt

T T T U T

4–2

Full-time

Werder Bremen

T T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Darmstadt Werder Bremen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,2

3,8

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

3,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

-2,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 20%

40%

Points per game

0,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 80%

80%

Both score Ø 60%

80%

40%

Average goals

4,4

3,6

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

3,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-2,0

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,43 xG 1,55

43% Possession 57%

14 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 5

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 4

2 Offside 6

19 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Darmstadt 17. · Werder Bremen 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	6	5	1	0	+14	+7.5	16
2	Stuttgart	6	5	0	1	+12	+7.0	15
3	Bayern Munich	6	4	2	0	+14	+13.1	14
4	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+6	+4.5	14
5	RB Leipzig	6	4	1	1	+10	-0.5	13
6	Hoffenheim	6	4	0	2	+4	+0.5	12
7	Wolfsburg	6	4	0	2	+3	+2.2	12
8	Ein Frankfurt	6	1	4	1	-1	-2.0	7
9	Heidenheim	6	2	1	3	-3	-7.9	7
10	Freiburg	5	2	1	2	-5	+0.4	7
11	Union Berlin	6	2	0	4	-1	-0.0	6
12	Werder Bremen	5	2	0	3	-2	+0.0	6
13	M'gladbach	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.2	5
14	Augsburg	5	1	2	2	-4	+0.0	5
15	Bochum	6	0	3	3	-14	-8.1	3
16	FC Koln	6	0	1	5	-7	-5.5	1
17	Darmstadt	5	0	1	4	-10	-7.9	1
18	Mainz	6	0	1	5	-13	-3.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	3	3	0	0	+12	+5.3	9
2	Leverkusen	3	3	0	0	+8	+5.5	9
3	Wolfsburg	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.1	9
4	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+9	+7.2	7
5	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+7	-1.6	7
6	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.2	7
7	Heidenheim	3	2	0	1	+2	-2.6	6
8	Werder Bremen	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.6	6
9	Augsburg	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.7	5
10	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.5	5
11	Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.3	3
12	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
13	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.7	3
14	Bochum	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.2	2
15	Darmstadt	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.1	1
16	Mainz	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.1	1
17	FC Koln	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.5	0
18	M'gladbach	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	3	3	0	0	+5	+0.8	9
2	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+6	+2.1	7
3	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+5	+6.0	7
4	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.3	7
5	RB Leipzig	3	2	0	1	+3	+1.1	6
6	Stuttgart	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.7	6
7	M'gladbach	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.2	5
8	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	-4	+0.4	4
9	Union Berlin	3	1	0	2	+1	+1.7	3
10	Wolfsburg	3	1	0	2	-2	+0.0	3
11	Ein Frankfurt	3	0	2	1	-2	-3.5	2
12	FC Koln	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.0	1
13	Heidenheim	3	0	1	2	-5	-5.3	1
14	Bochum	3	0	1	2	-12	-7.9	1
15	Werder Bremen	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
16	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.6	0
17	Darmstadt	3	0	0	3	-7	-5.8	0
18	Mainz	3	0	0	3	-8	-2.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.