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Bundesliga

Referee: S Jablonski

Dortmund

T S S U T

2–3

Full-time

RB Leipzig

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

1,8

1,7

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 58%

54%

62%

Points per game

1,9

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

62%

77%

Both score Ø 62%

69%

54%

Average goals

3,5

3,4

Scored

2,0

2,4

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,85 xG 3,24

54% Possession 46%

18 Shots 24

6 Shots on target 8

8 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 4

6 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 5. · RB Leipzig 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	13	11	2	0	+27	+14.3	35
2	Bayern Munich	13	10	2	1	+30	+28.7	32
3	Stuttgart	13	10	0	3	+18	+19.8	30
4	RB Leipzig	13	8	2	3	+18	+10.2	26
5	Dortmund	13	7	4	2	+6	+1.5	25
6	Hoffenheim	14	7	2	5	+4	-1.6	23
7	Ein Frankfurt	14	5	6	3	+8	-0.7	21
8	Freiburg	14	6	3	5	-6	-1.7	21
9	Augsburg	14	4	5	5	-4	-0.1	17
10	M'gladbach	14	4	4	6	-3	-3.2	16
11	Wolfsburg	14	5	1	8	-7	-2.5	16
12	Werder Bremen	14	4	2	8	-7	-7.3	14
13	Heidenheim	14	4	2	8	-9	-15.3	14
14	Bochum	14	2	7	5	-14	-6.8	13
15	Union Berlin	13	3	1	9	-13	-3.0	10
16	FC Koln	13	2	3	8	-14	-14.0	9
17	Darmstadt	14	2	3	9	-20	-14.6	9
18	Mainz	13	1	5	7	-14	-3.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	7	6	1	0	+16	+11.6	19
2	Stuttgart	7	6	0	1	+16	+14.5	18
3	RB Leipzig	7	5	2	0	+16	+8.3	17
4	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+22	+15.9	16
5	Dortmund	7	5	1	1	+3	+5.5	16
6	Wolfsburg	7	4	1	2	+4	+0.3	13
7	Heidenheim	7	4	1	2	+2	-4.4	13
8	Werder Bremen	8	4	1	3	+1	-0.6	13
9	Ein Frankfurt	7	3	3	1	+6	+0.8	12
10	Augsburg	7	3	3	1	+2	+1.4	12
11	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+2	+3.7	11
12	M'gladbach	7	3	1	3	+1	+0.5	10
13	Bochum	6	1	4	1	+0	+3.6	7
14	Hoffenheim	7	2	1	4	-2	-1.2	7
15	Union Berlin	7	2	1	4	-6	-2.0	7
16	Darmstadt	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.4	5
17	FC Koln	6	1	1	4	-4	-4.9	4
18	Mainz	6	1	1	4	-6	+0.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	6	5	1	0	+11	+2.7	16
2	Bayern Munich	7	5	1	1	+8	+12.7	16
3	Hoffenheim	7	5	1	1	+6	-0.5	16
4	Stuttgart	6	4	0	2	+2	+5.3	12
5	Freiburg	8	3	1	4	-8	-5.5	10
6	Dortmund	6	2	3	1	+3	-4.0	9
7	Ein Frankfurt	7	2	3	2	+2	-1.5	9
8	RB Leipzig	6	3	0	3	+2	+2.0	9
9	M'gladbach	7	1	3	3	-4	-3.6	6
10	Bochum	8	1	3	4	-14	-10.4	6
11	Augsburg	7	1	2	4	-6	-1.6	5
12	FC Koln	7	1	2	4	-10	-9.1	5
13	Mainz	7	0	4	3	-8	-4.3	4
14	Darmstadt	7	1	1	5	-15	-12.2	4
15	Union Berlin	6	1	0	5	-7	-1.1	3
16	Wolfsburg	7	1	0	6	-11	-2.8	3
17	Werder Bremen	6	0	1	5	-8	-6.7	1
18	Heidenheim	7	0	1	6	-11	-10.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.