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Bundesliga

Referee: T Welz

Heidenheim

T U U S U

1–2

Full-time

RB Leipzig

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heidenheim RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,0

Scored

1,5

2,5

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 44%

28%

59%

Points per game

1,2

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

55%

69%

Both score Ø 66%

72%

59%

Average goals

3,2

3,4

Scored

1,4

2,3

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,03 xG 1,84

39% Possession 61%

9 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 6

1 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heidenheim 10. · RB Leipzig 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	29	25	4	0	+55	+37.7	79
2	Bayern Munich	29	20	3	6	+46	+51.9	63
3	Stuttgart	29	20	3	6	+33	+31.0	63
4	RB Leipzig	29	17	5	7	+34	+25.3	56
5	Dortmund	29	16	8	5	+23	+11.2	56
6	Ein Frankfurt	30	11	12	7	+6	-3.1	45
7	Augsburg	30	10	9	11	-1	-5.7	39
8	Freiburg	29	11	6	12	-11	-2.5	39
9	Hoffenheim	29	10	6	13	-8	-10.2	36
10	Heidenheim	29	8	10	11	-8	-21.1	34
11	M'gladbach	29	7	10	12	-6	-5.2	31
12	Werder Bremen	29	8	7	14	-13	-11.1	31
13	Union Berlin	29	8	5	16	-20	-10.4	29
14	Wolfsburg	29	7	7	15	-16	-3.2	28
15	Bochum	29	5	12	12	-25	-18.7	27
16	Mainz	29	5	11	13	-17	-1.4	26
17	FC Koln	29	4	10	15	-28	-29.5	22
18	Darmstadt	29	2	8	19	-44	-35.0	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	15	13	2	0	+35	+27.1	41
2	Bayern Munich	15	12	1	2	+38	+32.8	37
3	Stuttgart	15	11	3	1	+29	+24.7	36
4	RB Leipzig	15	10	3	2	+25	+19.9	33
5	Ein Frankfurt	15	7	7	1	+12	+6.7	28
6	Dortmund	14	8	2	4	+7	+11.5	26
7	Augsburg	15	6	6	3	+4	+0.1	24
8	Heidenheim	14	6	4	4	+2	-5.3	22
9	Bochum	15	4	8	3	+1	+2.3	20
10	Freiburg	14	5	5	4	-1	+6.1	20
11	Union Berlin	14	6	2	6	-4	-3.8	20
12	Mainz	15	5	4	6	+2	+10.4	19
13	M'gladbach	15	5	4	6	+1	+5.5	19
14	Werder Bremen	14	5	3	6	-1	-0.1	18
15	Wolfsburg	14	4	4	6	-2	-0.4	16
16	Hoffenheim	14	4	4	6	-3	+1.8	16
17	FC Koln	14	3	3	8	-12	-10.5	12
18	Darmstadt	15	1	3	11	-22	-10.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	14	12	2	0	+20	+10.6	38
2	Dortmund	15	8	6	1	+16	-0.3	30
3	Stuttgart	14	9	0	5	+4	+6.3	27
4	Bayern Munich	14	8	2	4	+8	+19.1	26
5	RB Leipzig	14	7	2	5	+9	+5.4	23
6	Hoffenheim	15	6	2	7	-5	-12.0	20
7	Freiburg	15	6	1	8	-10	-8.6	19
8	Ein Frankfurt	15	4	5	6	-6	-9.8	17
9	Augsburg	15	4	3	8	-5	-5.8	15
10	Werder Bremen	15	3	4	8	-12	-10.9	13
11	M'gladbach	14	2	6	6	-7	-10.8	12
12	Heidenheim	15	2	6	7	-10	-15.8	12
13	Wolfsburg	15	3	3	9	-14	-2.7	12
14	FC Koln	15	1	7	7	-16	-18.9	10
15	Union Berlin	15	2	3	10	-16	-6.6	9
16	Darmstadt	14	1	5	8	-22	-24.5	8
17	Mainz	14	0	7	7	-19	-11.8	7
18	Bochum	14	1	4	9	-26	-21.0	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.