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Ligue 1

Referee: J Pignard

Lens

S U U S S

2–0

Full-time

Brest

S U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Brest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,7

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

1,0

6,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

0,0

5,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-4,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,97 xG 0,86

52% Possession 48%

22 Shots 10

11 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 8

5 Corners 2

6 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lens 7. · Brest 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+9	+5.8	6
2	Lille	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
3	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.7	6
4	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.1	3
5	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.0	3
6	Auxerre	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
7	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
8	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.4	3
9	Strasbourg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
10	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
11	Nantes	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
12	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-6	-2.7	1
13	Nice	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
14	Reims	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.0	0
15	St Etienne	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.8	0
16	Angers	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.1	0
17	Brest	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.1	0
18	Lyon	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+6	+3.2	3
2	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.0	3
3	Lille	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
4	Auxerre	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
5	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
6	Montpellier	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
7	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
8	Angers	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
9	Lyon	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.2	0
10	Reims	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.0	0
11	St Etienne	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
12	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.7	0
13	Brest	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.1	3
2	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.7	3
3	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
4	Lille	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.0	3
5	Le Havre	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
6	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
7	Strasbourg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
8	Nantes	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
9	Nice	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
10	St Etienne	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
11	Angers	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
12	Lyon	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.0	0
13	Montpellier	1	0	0	1	-6	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.