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DFB-Pokal

Referee: S Stegemann

Mainz

S T S T U

0–4

Full-time

Bayern Munich

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Bayern Munich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,8

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — DFB-Pokal · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,0

Scored

3,0

4,0

Conceded

1,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+4,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–4

20% Possession 80%

6 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 10

2 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 19. · Bayern Munich 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Karlsruhe	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Augsburg	2	2	0	0	+6	6
3	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+6	6
4	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+5	6
5	Hertha	2	2	0	0	+5	6
6	Freiburg	2	2	0	0	+5	6
7	FC Koln	2	2	0	0	+4	6
8	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Werder Bremen	2	2	0	0	+3	6
11	Wolfsburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
12	Regensburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
13	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	+5	3
14	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	+4	3
15	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+4	3
16	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+3	3
17	Paderborn	2	1	0	1	+3	3
18	Dortmund	2	1	0	1	+2	3
19	Mainz	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Dresden	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+1	3
24	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
25	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Kaiserslautern	2	1	0	1	+0	3
27	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	-1	3
28	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	-1	3
29	Kickers Offenbach	2	1	0	1	-1	3
30	Holstein Kiel	2	1	0	1	-2	3
31	Wurzburger Kickers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
32	Hoffenheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
33	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	1	0	+0	1
34	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
35	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Alemannia Aachen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
38	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-1	0
39	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
40	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	0
41	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
42	Greifswalder FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
43	TuS Koblenz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
44	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
46	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-2	0
47	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
48	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-2	0
49	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	0	0	1	-2	0
50	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
51	VfR Aalen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
52	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-3	0
53	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-3	0
54	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
55	Phönix Lübeck	1	0	0	1	-3	0
56	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
57	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-4	0
58	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-4	0
59	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-4	0
60	FC 08 Villingen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
61	Preußen Münster	1	0	0	1	-5	0
62	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
63	SV Meppen	1	0	0	1	-6	0
64	Borussia Hildesheim	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Regensburg	2	2	0	0	+2	6
2	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+2	3
6	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Dresden	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Kickers Offenbach	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Wurzburger Kickers	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Alemannia Aachen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	FC Ingolstadt 04	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Paderborn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Carl Zeiss Jena	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Greifswalder FC	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	TuS Koblenz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Erzgebirge Aue	1	0	0	1	-2	0
25	Wehen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
26	Cottbus	1	0	0	1	-2	0
27	Teutonia Ottensen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
28	Schott Mainz	1	0	0	1	-2	0
29	VfR Aalen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Braunschweig	1	0	0	1	-3	0
31	Rot-Weiß Essen	1	0	0	1	-3	0
32	Viktoria Berlin	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Phönix Lübeck	1	0	0	1	-3	0
34	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
35	Osnabruck	1	0	0	1	-4	0
36	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-4	0
37	Bremer Sv	1	0	0	1	-4	0
38	FC 08 Villingen	1	0	0	1	-4	0
39	Preußen Münster	1	0	0	1	-5	0
40	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-5	0
41	SV Meppen	1	0	0	1	-6	0
42	Borussia Hildesheim	1	0	0	1	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Karlsruhe	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Werder Bremen	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Hamburg	2	1	0	1	+5	3
4	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	+4	3
6	Hertha	1	1	0	0	+4	3
7	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+4	3
10	Heidenheim	2	1	0	1	+3	3
11	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+3	3
12	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+3	3
13	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+3	3
14	Dortmund	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Mainz	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	M'gladbach	2	1	0	1	+1	3
18	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	+1	3
20	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Kaiserslautern	2	1	0	1	+0	3
24	St Pauli	2	1	0	1	-1	3
25	Schalke 04	2	1	0	1	-1	3
26	Holstein Kiel	2	1	0	1	-2	3
27	Hoffenheim	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Bochum	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	Fortuna Dusseldorf	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.