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Bundesliga

Referee: D Siebert

Mainz

U T U S S

2–0

Full-time

Hoffenheim

T U U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Hoffenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 32%

36%

27%

Points per game

1,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

55%

64%

Both score Ø 64%

55%

73%

Average goals

2,9

3,5

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,40 xG 0,44

52% Possession 48%

18 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 10. · Hoffenheim 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	9	3	0	+29	+21.3	30
2	Ein Frankfurt	11	7	2	2	+11	+2.1	23
3	Leverkusen	12	6	5	1	+9	+10.9	23
4	RB Leipzig	12	6	3	3	+5	-1.1	21
5	Dortmund	12	6	2	4	+4	+3.0	20
6	Freiburg	12	6	2	4	+0	+5.1	20
7	Wolfsburg	12	5	3	4	+6	-0.8	18
8	Stuttgart	12	4	5	3	+2	+3.8	17
9	M'gladbach	12	5	2	5	+1	+2.1	17
10	Mainz	11	4	4	3	+4	-1.5	16
11	Union Berlin	12	4	4	4	-1	-3.5	16
12	Werder Bremen	12	4	4	4	-5	-0.4	16
13	Augsburg	12	4	3	5	-9	-3.3	15
14	Hoffenheim	11	3	3	5	-5	-7.8	12
15	St Pauli	12	3	2	7	-5	-6.4	11
16	Heidenheim	11	3	1	7	-5	+0.9	10
17	Holstein Kiel	12	1	2	9	-18	-9.8	5
18	Bochum	12	0	2	10	-23	-14.5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	7	6	1	0	+12	+7.0	19
2	Augsburg	7	4	2	1	+4	+5.8	14
3	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+12	+10.4	13
4	Ein Frankfurt	5	4	1	0	+10	+3.7	13
5	Freiburg	6	4	1	1	+4	+4.7	13
6	M'gladbach	6	4	0	2	+4	+2.2	12
7	Stuttgart	6	3	2	1	+6	+8.8	11
8	Leverkusen	6	3	2	1	+4	+7.9	11
9	RB Leipzig	6	3	2	1	+3	+1.1	11
10	Union Berlin	6	3	2	1	+2	+0.6	11
11	Hoffenheim	6	3	0	3	-2	-3.0	9
12	Werder Bremen	6	1	3	2	-5	-2.0	6
13	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	-3	-1.1	5
14	Mainz	6	1	2	3	-3	+0.0	5
15	St Pauli	6	1	2	3	-4	-0.4	5
16	Heidenheim	5	1	1	3	-2	+3.0	4
17	Holstein Kiel	6	1	0	5	-13	-5.9	3
18	Bochum	5	0	2	3	-9	-5.6	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	+17	+10.8	17
2	Wolfsburg	6	4	1	1	+9	+0.3	13
3	Leverkusen	6	3	3	0	+5	+3.0	12
4	Mainz	5	3	2	0	+7	-1.6	11
5	RB Leipzig	6	3	1	2	+2	-2.3	10
6	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+1	-1.7	10
7	Werder Bremen	6	3	1	2	+0	+1.6	10
8	Freiburg	6	2	1	3	-4	+0.4	7
9	St Pauli	6	2	0	4	-1	-6.0	6
10	Heidenheim	6	2	0	4	-3	-2.1	6
11	Stuttgart	6	1	3	2	-4	-5.0	6
12	M'gladbach	6	1	2	3	-3	-0.1	5
13	Union Berlin	6	1	2	3	-3	-4.1	5
14	Hoffenheim	5	0	3	2	-3	-4.9	3
15	Holstein Kiel	6	0	2	4	-5	-3.9	2
16	Dortmund	5	0	1	4	-8	-4.0	1
17	Augsburg	5	0	1	4	-13	-9.1	1
18	Bochum	7	0	0	7	-14	-8.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.