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Bundesliga

Referee: Daniel Schlager

Dortmund

S S S S U

3–0

Full-time

Union Berlin

U T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Union Berlin

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

4,2

3,3

Scored

3,0

2,0

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

1,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

6,0

3,0

Scored

3,0

2,0

Conceded

3,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,51 xG 1,14

65% Possession 35%

11 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 11. · Union Berlin 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+7	+4.9	6
2	Ein Frankfurt	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.4	6
3	St Pauli	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.8	4
4	Wolfsburg	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.4	4
5	Augsburg	2	1	0	1	+1	-5.0	3
6	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.4	3
7	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
8	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
9	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
10	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	-4	+0.0	3
11	Dortmund	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
12	Leverkusen	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
13	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.5	1
14	M'gladbach	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.7	1
15	Hamburg	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.8	1
16	Werder Bremen	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.7	1
17	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.3	0
18	Heidenheim	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+6	+1.2	3
2	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.2	3
3	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
4	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.4	3
5	Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.0	3
6	Werder Bremen	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
7	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
8	Wolfsburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
9	M'gladbach	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
10	Augsburg	1	0	0	1	-1	-3.7	0
11	Leverkusen	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
12	Mainz	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
13	Freiburg	1	0	0	1	-2	+1.3	0
14	Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.2	0
15	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.7	0
16	Hamburg	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.1	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	-1.3	3
2	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.2	3
3	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.7	3
4	St Pauli	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.1	3
5	Bayern Munich	1	1	0	0	+1	+3.7	3
6	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.3	3
7	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
8	Leverkusen	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
9	Dortmund	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
10	Mainz	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.3	1
11	Hamburg	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
12	Stuttgart	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.4	0
13	M'gladbach	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.0	0
14	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
15	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
16	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-6	-1.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.