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La Liga

Referee: Guillermo Cuadra

Ath Bilbao

S U T U S

2–1

Full-time

Villarreal

U S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,7

This season — La Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 32%

38%

25%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 26%

13%

38%

Both score Ø 38%

38%

Average goals

1,4

1,8

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

0,5

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

52% Possession 48%

14 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

9 Corners 2

3 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Bilbao 9. · Villarreal 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sociedad	9	6	2	1	+5	20
2	Osasuna	10	5	3	2	+1	18
3	Real Madrid	8	5	2	1	+12	17
4	Sevilla	8	5	2	1	+8	17
5	Ath Madrid	8	5	2	1	+5	17
6	Vallecano	9	5	1	3	+6	16
7	Barcelona	8	4	3	1	+6	15
8	Betis	9	4	3	2	+3	15
9	Ath Bilbao	8	3	4	1	+3	13
10	Valencia	10	3	4	3	+2	13
11	Espanol	10	3	4	3	+0	13
12	Mallorca	10	3	3	4	-6	12
13	Villarreal	8	2	5	1	+4	11
14	Elche	10	2	4	4	-4	10
15	Celta	9	2	1	6	-5	7
16	Granada	9	1	4	4	-6	7
17	Cadiz	10	1	4	5	-8	7
18	Alaves	9	2	0	7	-9	6
19	Levante	9	0	5	4	-7	5
20	Getafe	9	0	2	7	-10	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Sociedad	5	4	1	0	+4	13
3	Vallecano	4	4	0	0	+10	12
4	Espanol	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Sevilla	3	3	0	0	+7	9
6	Valencia	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Mallorca	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Real Madrid	3	2	1	0	+8	7
10	Villarreal	4	2	1	1	+4	7
11	Ath Bilbao	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Elche	5	1	4	0	+1	7
13	Osasuna	6	1	3	2	-4	6
14	Betis	4	1	2	1	+1	5
15	Granada	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Levante	4	0	3	1	-2	3
17	Celta	5	1	0	4	-3	3
18	Cadiz	6	0	3	3	-5	3
19	Alaves	5	1	0	4	-6	3
20	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Osasuna	4	4	0	0	+5	12
2	Real Madrid	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	Betis	5	3	1	1	+2	10
4	Ath Madrid	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Sevilla	5	2	2	1	+1	8
6	Sociedad	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Ath Bilbao	4	1	3	0	+1	6
8	Valencia	5	1	2	2	-1	5
9	Villarreal	4	0	4	0	+0	4
10	Celta	4	1	1	2	-2	4
11	Cadiz	4	1	1	2	-3	4
12	Vallecano	5	1	1	3	-4	4
13	Mallorca	5	1	1	3	-7	4
14	Espanol	5	0	3	2	-3	3
15	Alaves	4	1	0	3	-3	3
16	Elche	5	1	0	4	-5	3
17	Granada	5	0	3	2	-5	3
18	Barcelona	3	0	2	1	-2	2
19	Levante	5	0	2	3	-5	2
20	Getafe	5	0	1	4	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.