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La Liga
Referee: Jesús Gil
Cadiz
U U U T S
0–2
Full-time
Real Madrid
T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cadiz Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
1,8
3,5
Scored
1,0
2,7
Conceded
0,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+1,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 28/28 matches
Win Ø 45%
25%
64%
Points per game
1,1
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 47%
32%
61%
Both score Ø 49%
36%
61%
Average goals
2,3
3,0
Scored
0,8
2,1
Conceded
1,4
0,9
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,67 xG 3,52
31% Possession 69%
12 Shots 35
3 Shots on target 11
2 Blocked shots 12
9 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 9
0 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 7
1 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Cadiz 15. · Real Madrid 2.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 28 23 3 2 +44 +8.6 72
2 Real Madrid 28 18 5 5 +35 +14.3 59
3 Ath Madrid 28 17 6 5 +25 +9.8 57
4 Sociedad 29 15 6 8 +9 +3.2 51
5 Betis 29 14 6 9 +7 +2.7 48
6 Villarreal 29 14 5 10 +10 +3.9 47
7 Ath Bilbao 29 12 7 10 +11 +2.3 43
8 Vallecano 29 10 10 9 +1 -2.5 40
9 Osasuna 29 10 8 11 -5 -8.1 38
10 Celta 28 9 9 10 -3 +2.7 36
11 Girona 28 9 8 11 +0 -3.3 35
12 Mallorca 28 9 7 12 -5 -3.0 34
13 Sevilla 28 8 8 12 -11 +3.1 32
14 Valladolid 29 9 5 15 -23 -12.1 32
15 Cadiz 28 7 10 11 -17 -1.5 31
16 Getafe 28 7 9 12 -9 -1.8 30
17 Almeria 28 8 6 14 -14 -3.7 30
18 Valencia 28 7 6 15 -4 -2.6 27
19 Espanol 29 6 9 14 -14 -4.0 27
20 Elche 28 2 7 19 -37 -8.1 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Cadiz Real Madrid
Rubén Alcaraz 🟨
29′
Half-time 0–0
Jorge Meré 🔁
↦ Raúl Parra
55′
67′
🔁 E. Camavinga
↦ Lucas Vázquez
Roger 🔁
↦ Sergi Guardiola
70′
Álex Fernández 🔁
↦ Fede San Emeterio
70′
Iván Alejo 🔁
↦ Rubén Sobrino
70′
72′
Nacho 0–1
A. Tchouaméni
76′
Marco Asensio 0–2
F. Valverde
Álvaro Negredo 🔁
↦ Chris Ramos
78′
80′
🔁 E. Hazard
↦ Rodrygo
80′
🔁 L. Modrić
↦ F. Valverde
Full-time 0–2

Line-ups

Cadiz

4-4-2
13 David Gil G
2 Raúl Parra D
23 Luis Hernández D
3 Fali D
22 A. Espino D
10 T. Bongonda M
24 Fede San Emeterio M
4 Rubén Alcaraz M
7 Rubén Sobrino M
19 Sergi Guardiola F
16 Chris Ramos F
Bench (11)
25 Jorge Meré
15 Roger
8 Álex Fernández
11 Iván Alejo
18 Álvaro Negredo
6 José Mari
9 A. Lozano
5 M. Mbaye
21 S. Arzamendia
26 Victor Aznar
32 Víctor Chust

Coach: Sergio

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
17 Lucas Vázquez D
3 Éder Militão D
22 A. Rüdiger D
6 Nacho D
15 F. Valverde M
18 A. Tchouaméni M
19 Dani Ceballos M
11 Marco Asensio F
9 K. Benzema F
21 Rodrygo F
Bench (10)
12 E. Camavinga
7 E. Hazard
10 L. Modrić
24 M. Díaz
16 Odriozola
26 Luis López
5 Vallejo
4 D. Alaba
2 Dani Carvajal
13 A. Lunin

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
5,78
U
4,26
B ✓
1,57
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,78
U2,5 ✓
2,06
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Jesús Gil · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.