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La Liga
Referee: Juan Martínez
Almeria
S S S U U
1–2
Full-time
Real Madrid
S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Almeria Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,3
2,8
Scored
1,8
2,3
Conceded
0,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

32% Possession 68%
10 Shots 29
6 Shots on target 15
1 Blocked shots 10
13 Goalkeeper saves 5
2 Corners 15
3 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 4
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Almeria Real Madrid
1–0 L. Ramazani ⚽
Íñigo Eguaras
6′
Umar Sadiq 🟨
40′
40′
🟨 Eduardo Camavinga
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 L. Modrić
↦ E. Camavinga
Curro Sánchez 🔁
↦ L. Robertone
57′
58′
🔁 E. Hazard
↦ A. Tchouaméni
61′
⚽ Lucas Vázquez 1–1
K. Benzema
Curro 🟨
66′
José Carlos Lazo 🔁
↦ L. Ramazani
71′
Dyego Sousa 🔁
↦ U. Sadiq
71′
74′
🔁 D. Alaba
↦ F. Mendy
75′
⚽ D. Alaba 1–2
Arnau Puigmal 🔁
↦ Kaiky
81′
Portillo 🔁
↦ Íñigo Eguaras
81′
83′
🔁 Casemiro
↦ T. Kroos
83′
🔁 Dani Ceballos
↦ Vinícius Júnior
Arnau Puigmal 🟨
86′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Almeria

5-3-2
13 Fernando Martínez G
21 Chumi Brandariz D
2 Kaiky D
19 Rodrigo Ely D
22 S. Babić D
15 Sergio Akieme D
5 L. Robertone M
4 Íñigo Eguaras M
23 Samú Costa M
7 L. Ramazani F
9 U. Sadiq F
Bench (9)
10 Curro Sánchez
16 José Carlos Lazo
11 Dyego Sousa
18 Arnau Puigmal
8 Portillo
33 Carlos Rojas
14 A. Appiah
20 Álex Centelles
1 Diego Fuoli

Coach: Rubí

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
17 Lucas Vázquez D
22 A. Rüdiger D
6 Nacho D
23 F. Mendy D
12 E. Camavinga M
18 A. Tchouaméni M
8 T. Kroos M
15 F. Valverde F
9 K. Benzema F
20 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (12)
10 L. Modrić
7 E. Hazard
4 D. Alaba
14 Casemiro
19 Dani Ceballos
5 Vallejo
26 Luis López
3 Éder Militão
24 M. Díaz
16 Odriozola
11 Asensio
13 A. Lunin

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
7,17
🔒
U
4,91
🔒
B ✓
1,42
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,58
🔒
U2,5
2,38
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Juan Martínez · 102 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.