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Serie A

Referee: D Orsato

Atalanta

U T S U S

2–1

Full-time

Roma

T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

4,0

3,7

Scored

3,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,7

This season — Serie A · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 50%

52%

48%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

83%

61%

Both score Ø 68%

70%

65%

Average goals

4,0

3,1

Scored

2,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

57% Possession 43%

11 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 4. · Roma 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	23	16	6	1	+28	54
2	Juventus	23	17	3	3	+21	54
3	Lazio	23	16	5	2	+33	53
4	Atalanta	23	12	6	5	+30	42
5	Roma	23	11	6	6	+12	39
6	Verona	23	9	7	7	+4	34
7	Bologna	24	9	6	9	-2	33
8	Cagliari	23	8	8	7	+3	32
9	Parma	23	9	5	9	+1	32
10	Milan	23	9	5	9	-6	32
11	Napoli	23	8	6	9	+2	30
12	Sassuolo	23	8	5	10	+0	29
13	Torino	23	8	3	12	-15	27
14	Fiorentina	23	6	7	10	-8	25
15	Lecce	24	6	7	11	-13	25
16	Udinese	23	7	4	12	-16	25
17	Sampdoria	23	6	5	12	-13	23
18	Genoa	24	5	7	12	-16	22
19	Brescia	23	4	4	15	-21	16
20	Spal	24	4	3	17	-24	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	11	10	1	0	+17	31
2	Lazio	12	9	3	0	+26	30
3	Inter	12	7	4	1	+13	25
4	Verona	12	6	3	3	+5	21
5	Parma	12	6	1	5	+6	19
6	Roma	12	5	3	4	+3	18
7	Atalanta	11	5	2	4	+13	17
8	Cagliari	11	5	2	4	+4	17
9	Udinese	11	5	2	4	-2	17
10	Sassuolo	11	5	1	5	+4	16
11	Bologna	12	4	4	4	-2	16
12	Napoli	12	4	2	6	-2	14
13	Milan	11	3	5	3	-2	14
14	Torino	12	4	2	6	-11	14
15	Sampdoria	12	3	4	5	-3	13
16	Genoa	11	4	1	6	-3	13
17	Fiorentina	12	3	4	5	-4	13
18	Lecce	12	2	5	5	-2	11
19	Spal	11	2	2	7	-8	8
20	Brescia	12	1	3	8	-11	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	11	9	2	0	+15	29
2	Atalanta	12	7	4	1	+17	25
3	Lazio	11	7	2	2	+7	23
4	Juventus	12	7	2	3	+4	23
5	Roma	11	6	3	2	+9	21
6	Milan	12	6	0	6	-4	18
7	Bologna	12	5	2	5	+0	17
8	Napoli	11	4	4	3	+4	16
9	Cagliari	12	3	6	3	-1	15
10	Lecce	12	4	2	6	-11	14
11	Verona	11	3	4	4	-1	13
12	Torino	11	4	1	6	-4	13
13	Sassuolo	12	3	4	5	-4	13
14	Parma	11	3	4	4	-5	13
15	Fiorentina	11	3	3	5	-4	12
16	Sampdoria	11	3	1	7	-10	10
17	Brescia	11	3	1	7	-10	10
18	Genoa	13	1	6	6	-13	9
19	Udinese	12	2	2	8	-14	8
20	Spal	13	2	1	10	-16	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.