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Ligue 1

Referee: J Miguelgorry

Toulouse

T T U T T

0–2

Full-time

Nice

U U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

0,3

1,5

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 26%

13%

38%

Points per game

0,5

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

58%

63%

Both score Ø 63%

46%

79%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

0,9

1,4

Conceded

2,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

37% Possession 63%

19 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 0

2 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 20. · Nice 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	20	2	3	+46	62
2	Marseille	24	14	7	3	+12	49
3	Rennes	24	12	5	7	+7	41
4	Lille	24	12	4	8	+4	40
5	Monaco	25	11	5	9	+1	38
6	Montpellier	25	10	7	8	+4	37
7	Strasbourg	24	11	3	10	+3	36
8	Bordeaux	24	9	7	8	+7	34
9	Lyon	24	9	6	9	+12	33
10	Reims	24	8	9	7	+3	33
11	Nice	24	9	6	9	+0	33
12	Nantes	24	10	3	11	-2	33
13	Brest	24	7	9	8	-2	30
14	Angers	24	8	6	10	-8	30
15	St Etienne	24	8	4	12	-13	28
16	Metz	24	6	9	9	-8	27
17	Dijon	24	6	7	11	-7	25
18	Nimes	24	6	6	12	-13	24
19	Amiens	25	4	9	12	-18	21
20	Toulouse	24	3	4	17	-28	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	1	1	+28	31
2	Montpellier	13	9	2	2	+13	29
3	Lille	12	9	2	1	+12	29
4	Marseille	12	8	3	1	+9	27
5	Monaco	13	8	1	4	+7	25
6	Nice	13	7	3	3	+7	24
7	Strasbourg	12	7	2	3	+8	23
8	Rennes	12	7	2	3	+5	23
9	Brest	12	5	6	1	+10	21
10	Angers	13	6	3	4	+4	21
11	Dijon	12	5	5	2	+4	20
12	Nantes	12	6	1	5	+1	19
13	Nimes	12	5	2	5	+2	17
14	Reims	12	3	7	2	+3	16
15	Metz	12	4	4	4	+2	16
16	St Etienne	12	4	4	4	-3	16
17	Lyon	11	4	3	4	+8	15
18	Bordeaux	11	4	3	4	+7	15
19	Amiens	13	3	5	5	-5	14
20	Toulouse	11	3	0	8	-9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	10	1	2	+18	31
2	Marseille	12	6	4	2	+3	22
3	Bordeaux	13	5	4	4	+0	19
4	Lyon	13	5	3	5	+4	18
5	Rennes	12	5	3	4	+2	18
6	Reims	12	5	2	5	+0	17
7	Nantes	12	4	2	6	-3	14
8	Strasbourg	12	4	1	7	-5	13
9	Monaco	12	3	4	5	-6	13
10	St Etienne	12	4	0	8	-10	12
11	Lille	12	3	2	7	-8	11
12	Metz	12	2	5	5	-10	11
13	Nice	11	2	3	6	-7	9
14	Brest	12	2	3	7	-12	9
15	Angers	11	2	3	6	-12	9
16	Montpellier	12	1	5	6	-9	8
17	Amiens	12	1	4	7	-13	7
18	Nimes	12	1	4	7	-15	7
19	Dijon	12	1	2	9	-11	5
20	Toulouse	13	0	4	9	-19	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.