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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Aston Villa

S U S S S

2–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,7

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

1,8

1,0

Conceded

0,3

2,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 33%

45%

21%

Points per game

1,5

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

52%

41%

Both score Ø 49%

52%

45%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,30 xG 0,25

65% Possession 35%

8 Shots 6

3 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 8

1 Offside 7

7 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 7. · Nott'm Forest 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	29	23	3	3	+43	+12.6	72
2	Man City	28	20	4	4	+45	+14.7	64
3	Man United	29	17	5	7	+7	+0.4	56
4	Newcastle	28	14	11	3	+26	+8.3	53
5	Tottenham	29	15	5	9	+12	+1.1	50
6	Brighton	27	13	7	7	+17	+12.6	46
7	Aston Villa	29	13	5	11	-1	-3.7	44
8	Liverpool	28	12	7	9	+15	+1.8	43
9	Brentford	29	10	13	6	+8	+0.7	43
10	Fulham	28	11	6	11	+0	-5.9	39
11	Chelsea	29	10	9	10	-1	+5.0	39
12	Crystal Palace	29	7	9	13	-15	-5.5	30
13	Leeds	29	7	8	14	-11	-4.3	29
14	Wolves	29	7	7	15	-19	-4.5	28
15	West Ham	28	7	6	15	-13	-0.8	27
16	Everton	30	6	9	15	-20	-8.0	27
17	Nott'm Forest	29	6	9	14	-28	-8.3	27
18	Bournemouth	29	7	6	16	-30	-6.2	27
19	Leicester	29	7	4	18	-11	-4.0	25
20	Southampton	29	6	5	18	-24	-6.0	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	15	12	2	1	+24	+8.4	38
2	Man City	14	12	1	1	+33	+10.2	37
3	Man United	15	11	3	1	+19	+7.6	36
4	Liverpool	13	9	3	1	+25	+5.4	30
5	Tottenham	14	10	0	4	+13	+2.0	30
6	Newcastle	14	8	5	1	+14	+4.1	29
7	Brentford	14	7	6	1	+14	+1.3	27
8	Brighton	14	7	3	4	+11	+8.8	24
9	Aston Villa	14	7	2	5	+4	-0.3	23
10	Chelsea	15	6	5	4	+4	+6.3	23
11	Fulham	14	6	4	4	+1	-0.9	22
12	Nott'm Forest	15	5	6	4	+1	-4.1	21
13	West Ham	15	6	3	6	+0	+3.6	21
14	Leeds	14	5	5	4	+1	+2.1	20
15	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-5	-3.8	20
16	Bournemouth	15	5	4	6	-4	-1.5	19
17	Everton	15	5	3	7	-4	-0.1	18
18	Wolves	14	5	2	7	-7	+0.8	17
19	Leicester	14	3	3	8	-2	-1.1	12
20	Southampton	14	2	4	8	-10	-2.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	14	11	1	2	+19	+4.2	34
2	Man City	14	8	3	3	+12	+4.5	27
3	Newcastle	14	6	6	2	+12	+4.2	24
4	Brighton	13	6	4	3	+6	+3.7	22
5	Aston Villa	15	6	3	6	-5	-3.4	21
6	Tottenham	15	5	5	5	-1	-1.0	20
7	Man United	14	6	2	6	-12	-7.2	20
8	Fulham	14	5	2	7	-1	-5.1	17
9	Chelsea	14	4	4	6	-5	-1.2	16
10	Brentford	15	3	7	5	-6	-0.6	16
11	Leicester	15	4	1	10	-9	-2.9	13
12	Liverpool	15	3	4	8	-10	-3.6	13
13	Southampton	15	4	1	10	-14	-3.9	13
14	Wolves	15	2	5	8	-12	-5.2	11
15	Crystal Palace	14	2	4	8	-10	-1.7	10
16	Leeds	15	2	3	10	-12	-6.5	9
17	Everton	15	1	6	8	-16	-7.9	9
18	Bournemouth	14	2	2	10	-26	-4.7	8
19	West Ham	13	1	3	9	-13	-4.4	6
20	Nott'm Forest	14	1	3	10	-29	-4.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.