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Premier League

Referee: S Hooper

Watford

T T S T T

1–3

Full-time

Man City

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Man City

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

2,0

2,2

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,3

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 50%

29%

71%

Points per game

0,9

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 40%

50%

29%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

1,4

2,1

Conceded

1,9

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

23% Possession 77%

11 Shots 26

4 Shots on target 13

1 Blocked shots 5

9 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 11

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 7

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 17. · Man City 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	10	4	1	+32	34
2	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+26	33
3	Man City	14	10	2	2	+21	32
4	West Ham	15	8	3	4	+9	27
5	Arsenal	14	7	2	5	-3	23
6	Tottenham	13	7	1	5	-4	22
7	Man United	14	6	3	5	+0	21
8	Wolves	15	6	3	6	-1	21
9	Brighton	15	4	8	3	-2	20
10	Leicester	14	5	4	5	-3	19
11	Crystal Palace	14	3	7	4	-1	16
12	Brentford	14	4	4	6	-2	16
13	Aston Villa	14	5	1	8	-4	16
14	Southampton	15	3	7	5	-7	16
15	Everton	14	4	3	7	-7	15
16	Leeds	14	3	6	5	-7	15
17	Watford	14	4	1	9	-7	13
18	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-7	10
19	Newcastle	15	1	7	7	-13	10
20	Norwich	14	2	4	8	-20	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	5	1	1	+14	16
2	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+6	16
3	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+13	15
4	Tottenham	7	5	0	2	+0	15
5	Chelsea	7	4	2	1	+14	14
6	West Ham	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Southampton	8	2	5	1	+1	11
8	Crystal Palace	7	2	4	1	+4	10
9	Aston Villa	7	3	1	3	+2	10
10	Man United	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Everton	7	3	1	3	-1	10
12	Leicester	7	3	1	3	-1	10
13	Wolves	8	3	1	4	-2	10
14	Leeds	7	2	3	2	-2	9
15	Brighton	7	2	3	2	-2	9
16	Brentford	7	2	1	4	-1	7
17	Newcastle	8	1	4	3	-5	7
18	Watford	7	2	1	4	-5	7
19	Burnley	6	1	3	2	+0	6
20	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-6	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	6	1	1	+19	19
2	Chelsea	8	6	1	1	+12	19
3	Man City	7	5	1	1	+7	16
4	West Ham	7	4	1	2	+5	13
5	Wolves	7	3	2	2	+1	11
6	Man United	7	3	2	2	+0	11
7	Brighton	8	2	5	1	+0	11
8	Brentford	7	2	3	2	-1	9
9	Leicester	7	2	3	2	-2	9
10	Tottenham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
11	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-9	7
12	Watford	7	2	0	5	-2	6
13	Crystal Palace	7	1	3	3	-5	6
14	Leeds	7	1	3	3	-5	6
15	Aston Villa	7	2	0	5	-6	6
16	Everton	7	1	2	4	-6	5
17	Southampton	7	1	2	4	-8	5
18	Norwich	7	1	2	4	-14	5
19	Burnley	8	0	4	4	-7	4
20	Newcastle	7	0	3	4	-8	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.