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Ligue 1
Referee: F Letexier
Lens
T S T U U
1–1
Full-time
Paris SG
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
100%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
4,0
2,7
Scored
2,2
1,8
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 63%
44%
81%
Points per game
1,6
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 66%
63%
69%
Both score Ø 60%
56%
63%
Average goals
3,2
3,1
Scored
1,8
2,2
Conceded
1,4
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,4
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

36% Possession 64%
18 Shots 13
7 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 3
5 Goalkeeper saves 6
8 Corners 5
1 Offside 2
12 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lens 5. · Paris SG 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 16 13 2 1 +20 41
2 Marseille 16 8 5 3 +9 29
3 Rennes 16 8 4 4 +13 28
4 Nice 16 8 4 4 +13 28
5 Lens 16 7 5 4 +7 26
6 Brest 17 6 6 5 +2 24
7 Lille 17 6 6 5 -1 24
8 Strasbourg 16 6 5 5 +9 23
9 Monaco 16 6 5 5 +3 23
10 Angers 16 5 7 4 +2 22
11 Montpellier 16 6 4 6 +1 22
12 Lyon 15 6 4 5 +0 22
13 Nantes 16 5 4 7 -1 19
14 Reims 16 4 7 5 -1 19
15 Troyes 17 4 4 9 -9 16
16 Lorient 16 3 6 7 -12 15
17 Clermont 16 3 5 8 -12 14
18 Bordeaux 16 2 7 7 -13 13
19 Metz 16 2 6 8 -15 12
20 St Etienne 16 2 6 8 -15 12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lens Paris SG
Half-time 0–0
Facundo Medina 🟨
47′
F. Sotoca 🔁
↦ G. Kakuta
54′
1–0 S. Fofana
C. Doucouré
62′
63′
🟨 Marco Verratti
70′
🔁 K. Mbappé
↦ M. Icardi
70′
🔁 G. Wijnaldum
↦ L. Paredes
70′
🔁 I. Gueye
↦ Danilo Pereira
79′
🔁 Nuno Mendes
↦ Juan Bernat
Y. Cahuzac 🔁
↦ David Costa
80′
M. Haïdara 🔁
↦ A. Kalimuendo-Muinga
80′
90′
🟨 Achraf Hakimi
92′
G. Wijnaldum 1–1
K. Mbappé
Jonathan Gradit 🟨
93′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Lens

3-4-2-1
16 J. Leca G
11 J. Clauss M
24 J. Gradit D
4 K. Danso D
14 F. Medina D
10 G. Kakuta F
8 S. Fofana M
29 P. Frankowski M
28 C. Doucouré M
20 David Costa F
15 A. Kalimuendo-Muinga F
Bench (9)
7 F. Sotoca
18 Y. Cahuzac
21 M. Haïdara
1 W. Fariñez
27 C. Boli
5 C. Wooh
33 J. Varane
25 C. Jean
9 I. Ganago

Coach: F. Haise

Paris SG

4-3-3
1 K. Navas G
5 Marquinhos D
14 Juan Bernat D
3 P. Kimpembe D
2 A. Hakimi D
11 Á. Di María F
6 M. Verratti M
15 Danilo Pereira M
8 L. Paredes M
30 L. Messi F
9 M. Icardi F
Bench (9)
7 K. Mbappé
18 G. Wijnaldum
27 I. Gueye
25 Nuno Mendes
17 C. Dagba
50 G. Donnarumma
28 E. Ebimbe
22 A. Diallo
12 Rafinha

Coach: M. Pochettino

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,78
U ✓
4,29
B
1,65
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,56
U2,5 ✓
2,44
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.