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Bundesliga

Referee: P Ittrich

Heidenheim

S S T T U

4–2

Full-time

Werder Bremen

T T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heidenheim Werder Bremen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

4,2

2,8

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

1,3

Conceded

2,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,34 xG 3,09

41% Possession 59%

19 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

10 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

21 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heidenheim 14. · Werder Bremen 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	4	3	1	0	+8	+3.8	10
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+7	+6.6	10
3	RB Leipzig	4	3	0	1	+9	+1.2	9
4	Stuttgart	4	3	0	1	+8	+2.9	9
5	Hoffenheim	4	3	0	1	+4	-0.2	9
6	Wolfsburg	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.3	9
7	Dortmund	4	2	2	0	+3	+3.7	8
8	Union Berlin	4	2	0	2	+2	-1.1	6
9	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	3	0	+1	-0.2	6
10	Freiburg	4	2	0	2	-5	+0.5	6
11	Werder Bremen	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.5	3
12	Bochum	4	0	3	1	-5	-2.0	3
13	Augsburg	4	0	2	2	-5	-0.2	2
14	Heidenheim	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.6	1
15	M'gladbach	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.1	1
16	FC Koln	4	0	1	3	-4	-3.0	1
17	Mainz	4	0	1	3	-9	-2.3	1
18	Darmstadt	3	0	0	3	-8	-2.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Stuttgart	2	2	0	0	+10	+3.0	6
2	RB Leipzig	2	2	0	0	+7	+0.0	6
3	Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.3	6
4	Wolfsburg	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.2	6
5	Bayern Munich	2	1	1	0	+2	+2.3	4
6	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.0	4
7	Ein Frankfurt	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.4	4
8	Hoffenheim	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.6	3
9	Werder Bremen	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
10	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.4	3
11	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.0	3
12	Augsburg	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.4	2
13	Bochum	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.1	2
14	Mainz	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.5	1
15	Heidenheim	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
16	FC Koln	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.7	0
17	Darmstadt	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.5	0
18	M'gladbach	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	2	2	0	0	+5	+4.3	6
2	Hoffenheim	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.5	6
3	Leverkusen	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.4	4
4	Dortmund	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.6	4
5	RB Leipzig	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.1	3
6	Union Berlin	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.3	3
7	Wolfsburg	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.2	3
8	Stuttgart	2	1	0	1	-2	-0.0	3
9	Freiburg	2	1	0	1	-4	+0.4	3
10	Ein Frankfurt	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.6	2
11	M'gladbach	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
12	FC Koln	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.2	1
13	Heidenheim	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.2	1
14	Bochum	2	0	1	1	-5	-3.0	1
15	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.4	0
16	Augsburg	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.6	0
17	Darmstadt	2	0	0	2	-5	-3.4	0
18	Mainz	2	0	0	2	-7	-1.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.