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Ligue 1

Referee: P Gaillouste

Strasbourg

T S T S T

2–2

Full-time

Montpellier

S U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Strasbourg Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

3,8

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

50%

75%

Both score Ø 50%

25%

75%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

2,50 xG 1,13

44% Possession 56%

14 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

2 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 17

4 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Strasbourg 11. · Montpellier 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	5	3	2	0	+8	+4.7	11
2	Nice	5	2	3	0	+3	+4.8	9
3	Paris SG	5	2	2	1	+4	+5.0	8
4	Marseille	4	2	2	0	+3	+4.8	8
5	Lille	5	2	2	1	+0	+2.5	8
6	Metz	5	2	2	1	-2	-6.2	8
7	Rennes	5	1	4	0	+4	+5.5	7
8	Reims	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
9	Brest	4	2	1	1	+0	+1.3	7
10	Lorient	5	1	3	1	+0	-3.8	6
11	Strasbourg	4	2	0	2	-2	+0.0	6
12	Le Havre	4	1	2	1	+2	-1.9	5
13	Toulouse	4	1	2	1	-1	-5.0	5
14	Montpellier	4	1	1	2	+0	+1.7	4
15	Nantes	4	0	2	2	-3	-5.4	2
16	Clermont	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.0	1
17	Lens	5	0	1	4	-7	-1.9	1
18	Lyon	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+6	+0.8	6
2	Marseille	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.7	6
3	Strasbourg	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.6	6
4	Lille	2	2	0	0	+3	+2.2	6
5	Rennes	3	1	2	0	+4	+6.2	5
6	Lorient	3	1	2	0	+3	-1.4	5
7	Nice	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.6	5
8	Paris SG	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.8	4
9	Brest	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.9	4
10	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.5	3
11	Reims	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.9	3
12	Metz	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.1	2
13	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
14	Nantes	3	0	2	1	-1	-4.1	2
15	Lens	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.3	1
16	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.1	1
17	Clermont	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.3	0
18	Lyon	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Metz	3	2	0	1	-2	-5.1	6
2	Monaco	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.9	5
3	Paris SG	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.2	4
4	Reims	3	1	1	1	+1	-0.2	4
5	Nice	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.2	4
6	Montpellier	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.6	3
7	Brest	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.6	3
8	Toulouse	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.9	3
9	Le Havre	2	0	2	0	+0	-3.3	2
10	Marseille	2	0	2	0	+0	+3.1	2
11	Rennes	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
12	Lille	3	0	2	1	-3	+0.3	2
13	Lyon	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
14	Clermont	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
15	Lorient	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.4	1
16	Nantes	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
17	Strasbourg	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.5	0
18	Lens	3	0	0	3	-6	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.