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Serie A

Referee: M Guida

Inter

U S T S S

2–2

Full-time

Bologna

S U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Bologna

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,8

1,3

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 58%

86%

29%

Points per game

2,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

57%

29%

Both score Ø 29%

29%

Average goals

3,1

1,4

Scored

2,7

0,9

Conceded

0,4

0,6

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

0,72 xG 1,32

63% Possession 37%

14 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 1. · Bologna 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	7	6	0	1	+16	+10.1	18
2	Milan	7	6	0	1	+7	+5.1	18
3	Napoli	7	4	2	1	+10	+10.8	14
4	Juventus	7	4	2	1	+6	+5.2	14
5	Fiorentina	7	4	2	1	+5	-1.7	14
6	Atalanta	7	4	1	2	+6	+5.1	13
7	Lecce	8	3	3	2	-1	-4.6	12
8	Bologna	7	2	4	1	+2	+1.5	10
9	Sassuolo	8	3	1	4	-2	-4.3	10
10	Frosinone	7	2	3	2	-1	-0.6	9
11	Torino	7	2	3	2	-1	-1.2	9
12	Monza	7	2	3	2	-2	-0.1	9
13	Roma	7	2	2	3	+4	+4.2	8
14	Genoa	7	2	2	3	-1	-3.2	8
15	Verona	7	2	2	3	-2	-3.7	8
16	Lazio	7	2	1	4	-3	-2.8	7
17	Udinese	8	0	5	3	-8	-2.4	5
18	Empoli	8	1	1	6	-15	-5.1	4
19	Salernitana	7	0	3	4	-10	-7.9	3
20	Cagliari	7	0	2	5	-10	-4.5	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lecce	5	3	1	1	+0	-0.8	10
2	Inter	4	3	0	1	+9	+6.8	9
3	Milan	3	3	0	0	+6	+4.6	9
4	Roma	4	2	1	1	+8	+2.6	7
5	Atalanta	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.0	7
6	Fiorentina	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.9	7
7	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.5	7
8	Bologna	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.8	7
9	Frosinone	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.7	7
10	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+4	+6.6	6
11	Sassuolo	4	2	0	2	+1	+0.5	6
12	Torino	4	1	3	0	+1	+0.7	6
13	Monza	3	1	2	0	+2	+2.5	5
14	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.3	4
15	Genoa	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.9	4
16	Verona	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.8	4
17	Empoli	5	1	1	3	-3	-0.4	4
18	Udinese	4	0	2	2	-5	+1.3	2
19	Salernitana	4	0	2	2	-7	-2.8	2
20	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+7	+3.3	9
2	Milan	4	3	0	1	+1	+0.5	9
3	Napoli	4	2	2	0	+6	+4.2	8
4	Juventus	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
5	Fiorentina	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.5	7
6	Atalanta	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.1	6
7	Genoa	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.3	4
8	Verona	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.9	4
9	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-3	-4.9	4
10	Monza	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.5	4
11	Bologna	3	0	3	0	+0	-0.3	3
12	Torino	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.0	3
13	Udinese	4	0	3	1	-3	-3.7	3
14	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-4	-4.0	3
15	Lecce	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.8	2
16	Frosinone	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.1	2
17	Salernitana	3	0	1	2	-3	-5.1	1
18	Roma	3	0	1	2	-4	+1.6	1
19	Cagliari	4	0	1	3	-6	-3.8	1
20	Empoli	3	0	0	3	-12	-4.7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.