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Serie A

Referee: P Valeri

Bologna

T U T S U

2–4

Full-time

Milan

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bologna Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,8

3,2

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

2,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,2

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 63%

38%

88%

Points per game

1,5

2,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

63%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

63%

Average goals

3,5

3,1

Scored

1,6

2,3

Conceded

1,9

0,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

37% Possession 63%

9 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 1

0 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

2 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bologna 8. · Milan 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	8	8	0	0	+16	24
2	Milan	8	7	1	0	+11	22
3	Inter	8	5	2	1	+12	17
4	Roma	8	5	0	3	+7	15
5	Lazio	8	4	2	2	+5	14
6	Atalanta	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Juventus	8	4	2	2	+2	14
8	Bologna	8	3	3	2	-2	12
9	Fiorentina	8	4	0	4	-2	12
10	Empoli	9	4	0	5	-4	12
11	Torino	9	3	2	4	+2	11
12	Sassuolo	9	3	2	4	+0	11
13	Udinese	8	2	3	3	-2	9
14	Sampdoria	9	2	3	4	-4	9
15	Verona	8	2	2	4	+0	8
16	Venezia	9	2	2	5	-8	8
17	Spezia	9	2	1	6	-11	7
18	Cagliari	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Genoa	9	1	3	5	-7	6
20	Salernitana	9	1	1	7	-13	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Roma	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+6	12
4	Lazio	4	3	1	0	+8	10
5	Bologna	4	3	1	0	+5	10
6	Inter	3	2	1	0	+9	7
7	Torino	5	2	1	2	+3	7
8	Juventus	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Verona	4	2	0	2	+2	6
11	Cagliari	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Udinese	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Sampdoria	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Venezia	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Salernitana	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Spezia	4	1	0	3	-2	3
18	Fiorentina	3	1	0	2	-2	3
19	Empoli	5	1	0	4	-7	3
20	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Atalanta	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Inter	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Milan	4	3	1	0	+3	10
5	Empoli	4	3	0	1	+3	9
6	Fiorentina	5	3	0	2	+0	9
7	Juventus	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Sampdoria	4	1	1	2	+0	4
9	Udinese	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Torino	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Lazio	4	1	1	2	-3	4
13	Genoa	5	1	1	3	-5	4
14	Venezia	6	1	1	4	-8	4
15	Spezia	5	1	1	3	-9	4
16	Roma	4	1	0	3	+1	3
17	Verona	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Bologna	4	0	2	2	-7	2
19	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-5	1
20	Salernitana	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.