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Serie A

Referee: D Doveri

Lecce

T T S T T

0–4

Full-time

Inter

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Inter

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

0,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

0,7

2,7

Conceded

2,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 25/24 matches

Win Ø 52%

20%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

44%

54%

Both score Ø 47%

56%

38%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

1,6

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,99 xG 2,93

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 10

3 Offside 5

13 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 14. · Inter 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	24	20	3	1	+47	+32.8	63
2	Juventus	26	17	6	3	+22	+22.7	57
3	Milan	25	16	4	5	+18	+8.7	52
4	Bologna	26	13	9	4	+16	+7.1	48
5	Atalanta	24	14	3	7	+24	+13.4	45
6	Roma	25	12	5	8	+15	+11.2	41
7	Lazio	25	12	4	9	+5	+2.6	40
8	Fiorentina	25	11	5	9	+8	-1.6	38
9	Napoli	25	10	7	8	+5	+14.7	37
10	Torino	25	9	9	7	+1	+3.6	36
11	Monza	26	9	9	8	-3	-8.7	36
12	Genoa	26	8	9	9	-3	-4.2	33
13	Empoli	26	6	7	13	-18	-8.4	25
14	Lecce	25	5	9	11	-15	-11.3	24
15	Udinese	26	3	14	9	-15	-7.2	23
16	Frosinone	26	6	5	15	-21	-12.9	23
17	Verona	26	4	8	14	-13	-9.4	20
18	Sassuolo	25	5	5	15	-17	-11.9	20
19	Cagliari	26	4	8	14	-23	-10.9	20
20	Salernitana	26	2	7	17	-33	-30.4	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bologna	14	11	2	1	+19	+6.5	35
2	Inter	12	10	1	1	+24	+20.8	31
3	Atalanta	13	10	1	2	+22	+12.1	31
4	Juventus	13	9	3	1	+12	+13.6	30
5	Milan	12	9	1	2	+14	+6.5	28
6	Roma	13	8	3	2	+17	+9.4	27
7	Fiorentina	12	7	2	3	+10	+3.7	23
8	Torino	13	6	5	2	+6	+7.6	23
9	Lazio	12	6	3	3	+4	+4.9	21
10	Monza	13	5	5	3	+3	-3.1	20
11	Genoa	13	5	5	3	+1	-1.9	20
12	Frosinone	13	6	2	5	+0	-1.0	20
13	Lecce	12	5	4	3	-2	-0.9	19
14	Napoli	12	5	3	4	+1	+9.3	18
15	Cagliari	13	4	4	5	-6	+2.5	16
16	Verona	12	3	5	4	-2	-2.0	14
17	Sassuolo	12	3	3	6	-3	-2.3	12
18	Udinese	13	1	8	4	-4	+1.9	11
19	Empoli	13	2	4	7	-9	-3.6	10
20	Salernitana	14	1	4	9	-16	-11.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	10	2	0	+23	+12.0	32
2	Juventus	13	8	3	2	+10	+9.1	27
3	Milan	13	7	3	3	+4	+2.2	24
4	Napoli	13	5	4	4	+4	+5.4	19
5	Lazio	13	6	1	6	+1	-2.4	19
6	Monza	13	4	4	5	-6	-5.6	16
7	Fiorentina	13	4	3	6	-2	-5.3	15
8	Empoli	13	4	3	6	-9	-4.8	15
9	Atalanta	11	4	2	5	+2	+1.3	14
10	Roma	12	4	2	6	-2	+1.8	14
11	Bologna	12	2	7	3	-3	+0.6	13
12	Genoa	13	3	4	6	-4	-2.3	13
13	Torino	12	3	4	5	-5	-4.0	13
14	Udinese	13	2	6	5	-11	-9.1	12
15	Sassuolo	13	2	2	9	-14	-9.6	8
16	Verona	14	1	3	10	-11	-7.4	6
17	Salernitana	12	1	3	8	-17	-18.9	6
18	Lecce	13	0	5	8	-13	-10.4	5
19	Cagliari	13	0	4	9	-17	-13.4	4
20	Frosinone	13	0	3	10	-21	-11.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.