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Premier League

Referee: S Allison

Man City

S S S T S

4–1

Full-time

Ipswich

U U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Ipswich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

2,8

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 0%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

2,0

0,0

Conceded

0,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

3,34 xG 0,29

75% Possession 25%

14 Shots 1

5 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

10 Corners 1

3 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 3. · Ipswich 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.6	6
2	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
3	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
4	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
5	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
6	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
7	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.5	3
8	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.3	3
9	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
10	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
11	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
12	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
13	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
14	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
15	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.5	0
16	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
17	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
18	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.2	0
19	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.2	0
20	Everton	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
2	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
3	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
4	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.5	3
5	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
6	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
7	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
8	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
9	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.2	0
10	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.2	0
11	Everton	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.0	3
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
3	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
4	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
5	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
6	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
7	Man United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
8	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
9	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.5	0
10	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
11	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.