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Serie A

Referee: A Giua

Como

T U T U S

3–2

Full-time

Verona

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Como Verona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

60%

80%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

1,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,25 xG 1,14

72% Possession 28%

24 Shots 6

11 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

9 Corners 1

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 19

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Como 15. · Verona 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	6	3	3	0	+9	+4.4	12
2	Milan	6	3	2	1	+7	+4.7	11
3	Inter	6	3	2	1	+6	+3.8	11
4	Torino	6	3	2	1	+2	-2.4	11
5	Napoli	5	3	1	1	+5	+2.3	10
6	Lazio	6	3	1	2	+2	+3.1	10
7	Udinese	6	3	1	2	-1	-4.2	10
8	Empoli	5	2	3	0	+3	-1.4	9
9	Atalanta	6	2	1	3	-1	+3.4	7
10	Bologna	6	1	4	1	-2	-0.9	7
11	Roma	5	1	3	1	+2	+1.3	6
12	Verona	5	2	0	3	+0	-2.0	6
13	Fiorentina	5	1	3	1	+0	+3.0	6
14	Parma	5	1	2	2	-1	-0.8	5
15	Como	5	1	2	2	-3	-0.5	5
16	Genoa	6	1	2	3	-6	-3.9	5
17	Lecce	6	1	2	3	-8	-3.1	5
18	Venezia	5	1	1	3	-5	-3.1	4
19	Monza	5	0	3	2	-2	-3.8	3
20	Cagliari	5	0	2	3	-7	+0.0	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	3	2	1	0	+7	+4.3	7
2	Lazio	3	2	1	0	+3	+2.9	7
3	Inter	3	2	0	1	+5	+1.1	6
4	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
5	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.6	6
6	Juventus	3	1	2	0	+3	+1.1	5
7	Fiorentina	3	1	2	0	+1	+3.8	5
8	Parma	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.0	4
9	Torino	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.3	4
10	Lecce	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.9	4
11	Roma	2	1	0	1	+2	+0.5	3
12	Venezia	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.0	3
13	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
14	Bologna	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.7	3
15	Verona	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.6	3
16	Empoli	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.3	2
17	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.0	2
18	Cagliari	4	0	2	2	-6	-0.1	2
19	Como	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
20	Monza	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+6	+3.3	7
2	Empoli	3	2	1	0	+3	-1.2	7
3	Torino	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.9	7
4	Inter	3	1	2	0	+1	+2.7	5
5	Napoli	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.0	4
6	Milan	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.4	4
7	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-1	+2.9	4
8	Udinese	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.6	4
9	Bologna	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.6	4
10	Como	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.4	4
11	Verona	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.4	3
12	Roma	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.8	3
13	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.1	3
14	Genoa	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.9	3
15	Monza	2	0	2	0	+0	-1.9	2
16	Fiorentina	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.8	1
17	Parma	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
18	Lecce	3	0	1	2	-5	-2.2	1
19	Venezia	3	0	1	2	-6	-4.0	1
20	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.