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Ligue 1
Referee: G Angoula
Toulouse
U U T S T
1–2
Full-time
Lyon
T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lyon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
33%
50%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,2
3,2
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
1,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,8
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 20%
20%
20%
Points per game
1,0
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
20%
60%
Both score Ø 40%
40%
40%
Average goals
2,0
3,4
Scored
0,8
1,2
Conceded
1,2
2,2
Goal diff per game
-0,4
-1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,94 xG 0,42
45% Possession 55%
10 Shots 4
4 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 2
0 Goalkeeper saves 3
3 Corners 4
4 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Toulouse 14. · Lyon 15.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 6 5 1 0 +15 +11.8 16
2 Monaco 6 5 1 0 +9 +9.2 16
3 Marseille 5 4 1 0 +9 -0.4 13
4 Lille 6 3 1 2 +4 +3.8 10
5 Lens 6 2 4 0 +3 +4.7 10
6 Nice 6 2 2 2 +8 +4.8 8
7 Nantes 5 2 2 1 +3 +0.4 8
8 Reims 5 2 2 1 +0 -6.0 8
9 Rennes 6 2 1 3 +1 -0.0 7
10 Strasbourg 5 1 3 1 +1 +0.8 6
11 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 -4 -3.2 6
12 Brest 6 2 0 4 -5 -6.2 6
13 Le Havre 6 2 0 4 -6 -4.9 6
14 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 -2 +4.5 5
15 Lyon 5 1 1 3 -5 -0.3 4
16 Montpellier 6 1 1 4 -11 -5.8 4
17 St Etienne 5 1 0 4 -14 -10.1 3
18 Angers 5 0 2 3 -6 -3.1 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Toulouse Lyon
10′
🟨 Jordan Veretout
1–0 Y. Gboho
V. Sierro
14′
28′
R. Nicolaisen 2–0
own goal
Half-time 2–0
48′
🟨 Duje Ćaleta-Car
53′
🔁 M. Fofana
↦ W. Zaha
53′
🔁 R. Cherki
↦ J. Veretout
Aron Dønnum 🟨
58′
Z. Aboukhlal 🔁
↦ F. Magri
64′
J. King 🔁
↦ S. Babicka
65′
G. Suazo 🔁
↦ A. Dønnum
67′
67′
🔁 C. Tolisso
↦ T. Tessmann
67′
🔁 A. Lacazette
↦ G. Mikautadze
Cristian Cásseres Jr. 🟨
87′
88′
🔁 A. Maitland-Niles
↦ S. Kumbedi
D. Genreau 🔁
↦ V. Sierro
93′
M. Zajc 🔁
↦ Y. Gboho
93′
95′
M. Fofana 2–1
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Toulouse

3-4-2-1
50 G. Restes G
19 D. Sidibé D
2 R. Nicolaisen D
3 M. McKenzie D
12 W. Kamanzi M
23 C. Cásseres M
8 V. Sierro M
15 A. Dønnum M
80 S. Babicka F
10 Y. Gboho F
9 F. Magri F
Bench (9)
7 Z. Aboukhlal
13 J. King
17 G. Suazo
5 D. Genreau
21 M. Zajc
20 N. Schmidt
6 Ü. Akdağ
4 C. Cresswell
30 Álex Domínguez

Coach: Carles Martínez

Lyon

4-3-3
23 Lucas Perri G
20 S. Kumbedi D
22 Clinton Mata D
55 D. Ćaleta-Car D
16 Abner D
6 M. Caqueret M
15 T. Tessmann M
7 J. Veretout M
17 S. Benrahma F
69 G. Mikautadze F
12 W. Zaha F
Bench (9)
11 M. Fofana
18 R. Cherki
8 C. Tolisso
10 A. Lacazette
98 A. Maitland-Niles
31 N. Matić
3 N. Tagliafico
40 R. Descamps
19 M. Niakhaté

Coach: P. Sage

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,47
U
3,49
B ✓
2,82
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,81
U2,5
1,99
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

G Angoula · 67 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.