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Ligue 1
Referee: A Kherradji
Nantes
U S S T U
2–2
Full-time
St Etienne
T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nantes St Etienne
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,3
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,5
3,3
Scored
1,2
0,5
Conceded
1,3
2,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
-2,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
40%
20%
Points per game
1,6
0,6
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
40%
40%
Both score Ø 30%
60%
0%
Average goals
2,2
3,2
Scored
1,4
0,2
Conceded
0,8
3,0
Goal diff per game
+0,6
-2,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,80 xG 1,02
61% Possession 39%
16 Shots 5
3 Shots on target 3
7 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
8 Corners 4
2 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 2
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Nantes 7. · St Etienne 17.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 6 5 1 0 +15 +11.8 16
2 Monaco 6 5 1 0 +9 +9.2 16
3 Marseille 5 4 1 0 +9 -0.4 13
4 Lille 6 3 1 2 +4 +3.8 10
5 Lens 6 2 4 0 +3 +4.7 10
6 Nice 6 2 2 2 +8 +4.8 8
7 Nantes 5 2 2 1 +3 +0.4 8
8 Reims 5 2 2 1 +0 -6.0 8
9 Rennes 6 2 1 3 +1 -0.0 7
10 Lyon 6 2 1 3 -4 -0.8 7
11 Strasbourg 5 1 3 1 +1 +0.8 6
12 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 -4 -3.2 6
13 Brest 6 2 0 4 -5 -6.2 6
14 Le Havre 6 2 0 4 -6 -4.9 6
15 Toulouse 6 1 2 3 -3 +5.1 5
16 Montpellier 6 1 1 4 -11 -5.8 4
17 St Etienne 5 1 0 4 -14 -10.1 3
18 Angers 5 0 2 3 -6 -3.1 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Nantes St Etienne
1–0 J. Lepenant
10′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 S. Thomas
J. Lepenant
49′
Matthis Abline 🟨
52′
57′
I. Sissoko 2–1
Z. Davitashvili
Jean-Charles Castelletto 🟨
65′
65′
ℹ️ Mickael Nade
VAR: Penalty confirmed
67′
I. Sissoko 2–2
73′
🟨 Mathis Amougou
78′
🔁 L. Stassin
↦ I. Sissoko
78′
🔁 M. Cafaro
↦ B. Old
I. Ganago 🔁
↦ S. Thomas
79′
Mostafa Mohamed 🔁
↦ M. Abline
79′
83′
🔁 B. Bouchouari
↦ M. Amougou
D. Assoumani 🔁
↦ J. Lepenant
88′
F. Mollet 🔁
↦ Pedro Chirivella
88′
89′
🔁 A. Boakye
↦ Z. Davitashvili
97′
🟨 Gautier Larsonneur
Marcus Coco 🟥
98′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Nantes

4-2-3-1
1 A. Lafont G
11 M. Coco D
21 J. Castelletto D
44 N. Zézé D
3 N. Cozza D
5 Pedro Chirivella M
6 Douglas Augusto M
22 S. Thomas M
8 J. Lepenant M
27 M. Simon M
39 M. Abline F
Bench (9)
7 I. Ganago
31 Mostafa Mohamed
59 D. Assoumani
25 F. Mollet
41 M. Acapandié
98 K. Amian
17 J. Gbamin
30 P. Carlgren
4 N. Pallois

Coach: A. Kombouare

St Etienne

4-3-3
30 G. Larsonneur G
8 D. Appiah D
21 D. Batubinsika D
3 M. Nadé D
19 L. Pétrot D
29 A. Moueffek M
4 P. Ekwah M
37 M. Amougou M
11 B. Old F
9 I. Sissoko F
22 Z. Davitashvili F
Bench (9)
32 L. Stassin
18 M. Cafaro
6 B. Bouchouari
20 A. Boakye
10 F. Tardieu
28 I. Miladinović
5 Y. Abdelhamid
26 L. Fomba
1 B. Maubleu

Coach: O. Dall’Oglio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,76
U ✓
3,73
B
4,71
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,97
U2,5
1,86
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

A Kherradji · 83 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
28,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.