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Serie A

Referee: G Collu

Monza

T T T U T

1–3

Full-time

Como

S T U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monza Como

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 15%

23%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

50%

47%

Both score Ø 62%

57%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,9

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,90 xG 2,17

42% Possession 58%

8 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 7

3 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

19 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Monza 20. · Como 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	30	20	7	3	+39	+30.0	67
2	Napoli	30	19	7	4	+23	+17.7	64
3	Atalanta	30	17	7	6	+34	+22.2	58
4	Bologna	30	15	11	4	+16	+12.6	56
5	Juventus	30	14	13	3	+18	+13.1	55
6	Roma	30	15	7	8	+15	+11.3	52
7	Lazio	30	15	7	8	+9	+12.4	52
8	Fiorentina	30	15	6	9	+17	+5.2	51
9	Milan	30	13	8	9	+10	+18.7	47
10	Udinese	31	11	7	13	-6	-8.4	40
11	Torino	30	9	12	9	+0	-14.5	39
12	Genoa	31	9	11	11	-9	-6.6	38
13	Como	30	7	9	14	-11	+0.7	30
14	Verona	30	9	3	18	-29	-16.9	30
15	Cagliari	30	7	8	15	-13	-10.6	29
16	Parma	30	5	11	14	-14	-14.3	26
17	Lecce	30	6	7	17	-28	-21.5	25
18	Empoli	30	4	11	15	-23	-15.0	23
19	Venezia	30	3	11	16	-20	-18.1	20
20	Monza	30	2	9	19	-28	-18.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	15	11	3	1	+17	+14.5	36
2	Napoli	15	11	2	2	+12	+14.1	35
3	Fiorentina	16	10	3	3	+12	+7.8	33
4	Bologna	15	9	5	1	+16	+15.0	32
5	Roma	15	10	1	4	+18	+9.2	31
6	Juventus	16	8	7	1	+11	+8.4	31
7	Milan	15	7	6	2	+11	+10.0	27
8	Lazio	15	7	6	2	+8	+9.2	27
9	Atalanta	14	7	4	3	+11	+10.0	25
10	Udinese	15	7	2	6	+1	-3.2	23
11	Genoa	16	5	7	4	+0	-1.5	22
12	Torino	14	5	5	4	+1	-6.4	20
13	Como	15	5	5	5	+0	+2.0	20
14	Cagliari	16	5	4	7	-5	-1.3	19
15	Parma	15	4	4	7	-3	-2.1	16
16	Venezia	15	3	5	7	-4	-2.8	14
17	Lecce	15	3	5	7	-15	-8.2	14
18	Verona	15	4	2	9	-19	-5.4	14
19	Monza	15	1	5	9	-9	-4.8	8
20	Empoli	14	1	5	8	-15	-7.2	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	16	10	3	3	+23	+12.2	33
2	Inter	15	9	4	2	+22	+15.5	31
3	Napoli	15	8	5	2	+11	+3.6	29
4	Lazio	15	8	1	6	+1	+3.2	25
5	Juventus	14	6	6	2	+7	+4.7	24
6	Bologna	15	6	6	3	+0	-2.4	24
7	Roma	15	5	6	4	-3	+2.1	21
8	Milan	15	6	2	7	-1	+8.8	20
9	Torino	16	4	7	5	-1	-8.1	19
10	Fiorentina	14	5	3	6	+5	-2.7	18
11	Udinese	16	4	5	7	-7	-5.2	17
12	Genoa	15	4	4	7	-9	-5.1	16
13	Verona	15	5	1	9	-10	-11.5	16
14	Empoli	16	3	6	7	-8	-7.8	15
15	Lecce	15	3	2	10	-13	-13.3	11
16	Cagliari	14	2	4	8	-8	-9.3	10
17	Parma	15	1	7	7	-11	-12.2	10
18	Como	15	2	4	9	-11	-1.2	10
19	Monza	15	1	4	10	-19	-13.3	7
20	Venezia	15	0	6	9	-16	-15.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.