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Championship
Referee: J Bell
Coventry
S S S T T
1–2
Full-time
Burnley
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Coventry Burnley
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,7
2,5
Scored
1,8
1,7
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 37/39 matches
Win Ø 50%
43%
56%
Points per game
1,5
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 39%
54%
23%
Both score Ø 39%
54%
23%
Average goals
2,7
1,6
Scored
1,4
1,4
Conceded
1,3
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+1,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,50 xG 1,63
50% Possession 50%
14 Shots 13
4 Shots on target 6
5 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
1 Corners 5
2 Offside 5
14 Free kicks against 18
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Coventry 8. · Burnley 2.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leeds 39 23 12 4 +51 +45.7 81
2 Burnley 39 22 15 2 +42 +16.4 81
3 Sheffield United 36 24 6 6 +25 +13.3 78
4 Sunderland 36 20 11 5 +23 +15.3 71
5 Middlesbrough 40 17 9 14 +12 +12.2 60
6 West Brom 39 13 18 8 +13 +8.3 57
7 Bristol City 37 14 14 9 +8 +4.6 56
8 Coventry 37 16 7 14 +2 +17.0 55
9 Watford 39 15 8 16 -4 -5.8 53
10 Norwich 39 13 13 13 +7 +10.9 52
11 Blackburn 40 15 7 18 -1 -2.3 52
12 Sheffield Weds 39 14 10 15 -6 -2.1 52
13 Millwall 39 13 12 14 -3 +1.7 51
14 Preston 39 10 17 12 -7 -0.8 47
15 QPR 39 11 12 16 -8 -6.8 45
16 Swansea 39 12 9 18 -11 -2.6 45
17 Portsmouth 39 12 9 18 -14 -13.3 45
18 Stoke 39 10 12 17 -12 -16.4 42
19 Oxford 39 10 12 17 -17 -23.5 42
20 Derby 39 11 8 20 -9 -7.8 41
21 Hull 39 10 11 18 -9 -5.3 41
22 Cardiff 39 9 13 17 -20 -14.5 40
23 Luton 39 10 8 21 -25 -7.2 38
24 Plymouth 39 7 13 19 -37 -37.1 34

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Coventry Burnley
1–0 H. Wright
5′
16′
J. Anthony 1–1
L. Foster
Liam Kitching 🟨
18′
18′
🟨 Josh Brownhill
Half-time 1–2
46′
J. Anthony 1–2
69′
🔁 Z. Flemming
↦ M. Edwards
70′
🟨 CJ Egan-Riley
V. Torp 🔁
↦ J. Allen
74′
76′
🔁 H. Mejbri
↦ J. Brownhill
E. Simms 🔁
↦ T. Sakamoto
82′
84′
🟨 Hannibal Mejbri
88′
🔁 J. Sarmiento
↦ L. Foster
Milan van Ewijk 🟨
91′
97′
🟨 Josh Laurent
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Coventry

4-2-3-1
40 B. Collins G
27 M. van Ewijk D
4 B. Thomas D
15 L. Kitching D
3 J. Dasilva D
6 M. Grimes M
8 J. Allen M
7 T. Sakamoto M
5 J. Rudoni M
10 E. Mason-Clark M
11 H. Wright F
Bench (9)
29 V. Torp
9 E. Simms
14 B. Sheaf
17 R. Borges Rodrigues
22 J. Latibeaudiere
13 B. Wilson
21 J. Bidwell
2 L. Binks
12 J. Paterson

Coach: F. Lampard

Burnley

4-4-1-1
1 J. Trafford G
14 C. Roberts D
6 C. Egan-Riley D
5 M. Estève D
23 Lucas Pires D
22 M. Edwards M
24 J. Cullen M
29 J. Laurent M
11 J. Anthony M
8 J. Brownhill F
17 L. Foster F
Bench (9)
19 Z. Flemming
28 H. Mejbri
7 J. Sarmiento
30 L. Koleosho
2 O. Sonne
15 N. Redmond
35 A. Barnes
4 J. Worrall
32 V. Hladký

Coach: S. Parker

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,07
U
3,15
B ✓
2,40
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,24
U2,5
1,63
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Bell · 60 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.