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Serie A

Referee: Livio Marinelli

Milan

S S S S U

2–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,98 xG 1,08

56% Possession 44%

14 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 3

0 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 5. · Fiorentina 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	7	5	0	2	+10	+7.5	15
2	Napoli	7	5	0	2	+5	+5.1	15
3	Roma	7	5	0	2	+4	+2.3	15
4	Bologna	7	4	1	2	+6	+3.7	13
5	Milan	6	4	1	1	+6	+3.6	13
6	Como	7	3	3	1	+4	+2.3	12
7	Juventus	7	3	3	1	+2	+0.5	12
8	Atalanta	7	2	5	0	+6	+4.7	11
9	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+0	-2.9	10
10	Cremonese	6	2	3	1	-1	-5.4	9
11	Lazio	7	2	2	3	+3	-1.3	8
12	Cagliari	7	2	2	3	-2	-5.7	8
13	Udinese	6	2	2	2	-3	+0.6	8
14	Torino	7	2	2	3	-7	-2.5	8
15	Parma	7	1	3	3	-4	-1.8	6
16	Lecce	7	1	3	3	-5	-3.9	6
17	Verona	7	0	4	3	-7	-0.7	4
18	Fiorentina	6	0	3	3	-4	-2.0	3
19	Genoa	7	0	3	4	-6	+0.9	3
20	Pisa	7	0	3	4	-7	-5.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	4	3	0	1	+8	+5.3	9
2	Bologna	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.1	9
3	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.4	9
4	Como	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.0	8
5	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.7	8
6	Atalanta	4	1	3	0	+3	+5.0	6
7	Milan	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.3	6
8	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.5	6
9	Roma	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.8	6
10	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+3	+2.7	4
11	Cremonese	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.3	4
12	Parma	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.5	4
13	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-2	-4.2	4
14	Torino	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.2	4
15	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.4	2
16	Pisa	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.7	2
17	Lecce	4	0	2	2	-3	-2.1	2
18	Udinese	3	0	2	1	-3	+0.8	2
19	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-4	+2.4	2
20	Fiorentina	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.6	9
2	Milan	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.3	7
3	Inter	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.2	6
4	Napoli	4	2	0	2	+2	+4.7	6
5	Udinese	3	2	0	1	+0	-0.2	6
6	Atalanta	3	1	2	0	+3	-0.3	5
7	Cremonese	4	1	2	1	-2	-6.7	5
8	Bologna	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.4	4
9	Como	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.3	4
10	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.5	4
11	Lazio	4	1	1	2	+0	-4.0	4
12	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.4	4
13	Juventus	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.2	4
14	Lecce	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.9	4
15	Torino	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.3	4
16	Fiorentina	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.7	3
17	Parma	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.3	2
18	Verona	4	0	2	2	-6	-2.1	2
19	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.4	1
20	Pisa	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.