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Ligue 1

Referee: Gael Angoula

Lens

S T S U S

2–1

Full-time

Paris FC

S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Paris FC

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,5

4,0

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 50%

57%

43%

Points per game

1,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

57%

Both score Ø 57%

43%

71%

Average goals

2,3

3,6

Scored

1,4

1,7

Conceded

0,9

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,63 xG 0,52

43% Possession 57%

11 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

11 Corners 3

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lens 6. · Paris FC 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	8	6	0	2	+14	+9.2	18
2	Paris SG	8	5	2	1	+8	+5.2	17
3	Strasbourg	8	5	1	2	+7	+6.1	16
4	Lyon	8	5	0	3	+3	+6.5	15
5	Monaco	8	4	2	2	+4	+2.8	14
6	Lens	7	4	1	2	+4	+2.3	13
7	Lille	7	3	2	2	+4	+3.1	11
8	Nice	8	3	2	3	-2	-5.5	11
9	Paris FC	7	3	1	3	-1	-1.3	10
10	Toulouse	7	3	1	3	-1	+0.6	10
11	Rennes	7	2	4	1	-1	-3.7	10
12	Brest	7	2	2	3	+0	+0.3	8
13	Lorient	7	2	1	4	-7	-1.5	7
14	Nantes	7	1	3	3	-2	-5.1	6
15	Auxerre	7	2	0	5	-5	-2.2	6
16	Le Havre	8	1	3	4	-6	-1.2	6
17	Angers	8	1	3	4	-8	-7.5	6
18	Metz	7	0	2	5	-11	-8.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	4	4	0	0	+12	+8.0	12
2	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+6	+4.7	10
3	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+5	+3.1	10
4	Nice	5	3	1	1	+3	-2.1	10
5	Strasbourg	4	3	0	1	+6	+5.8	9
6	Lyon	4	3	0	1	+4	+5.1	9
7	Rennes	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.4	7
8	Lille	4	2	1	1	+1	+3.2	7
9	Lens	3	2	0	1	+4	+4.5	6
10	Paris FC	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.6	6
11	Lorient	3	2	0	1	+0	+2.0	6
12	Auxerre	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.0	6
13	Brest	4	1	2	1	+2	+2.5	5
14	Le Havre	4	1	2	1	+1	+4.6	5
15	Angers	4	1	2	1	-1	-1.4	5
16	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.8	4
17	Toulouse	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.5	4
18	Metz	4	0	2	2	-4	-3.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.1	7
2	Strasbourg	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.3	7
3	Lens	4	2	1	1	+0	-2.2	7
4	Marseille	4	2	0	2	+2	+1.2	6
5	Toulouse	4	2	0	2	+0	+0.0	6
6	Lyon	4	2	0	2	-1	+1.4	6
7	Lille	3	1	1	1	+3	-0.0	4
8	Monaco	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.9	4
9	Paris FC	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.9	4
10	Brest	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.1	3
11	Rennes	4	0	3	1	-4	-4.1	3
12	Nantes	4	0	2	2	-2	-4.3	2
13	Nice	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.5	1
14	Le Havre	4	0	1	3	-7	-5.8	1
15	Angers	4	0	1	3	-7	-6.1	1
16	Lorient	4	0	1	3	-7	-3.5	1
17	Auxerre	3	0	0	3	-5	-1.3	0
18	Metz	3	0	0	3	-7	-4.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.