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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Doveri

Udinese

T S U S S

0–3

Full-time

Milan

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Udinese Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

1,3

Conceded

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,34 xG 1,44

40% Possession 60%

10 Shots 13

4 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

1 Corners 4

3 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Udinese 5. · Milan 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+4	+0.9	10
2	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.5	9
3	Cagliari	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.5	7
4	Cremonese	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.9	7
5	Udinese	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.1	7
6	Milan	3	2	0	1	+2	+4.1	6
7	Roma	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.7	6
8	Bologna	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.3	6
9	Atalanta	3	1	2	0	+3	+3.1	5
10	Como	3	1	1	1	+1	+0.1	4
11	Torino	3	1	1	1	-4	-1.9	4
12	Inter	3	1	0	2	+3	+1.7	3
13	Lazio	3	1	0	2	+1	+1.7	3
14	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.4	3
15	Verona	4	0	3	1	-4	-1.1	3
16	Fiorentina	3	0	2	1	-2	-1.1	2
17	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-2	-0.9	2
18	Pisa	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.0	1
19	Parma	3	0	1	2	-4	-1.0	1
20	Lecce	4	0	1	3	-6	-4.6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.5	6
2	Bologna	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
3	Atalanta	2	1	1	0	+3	+3.0	4
4	Cagliari	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.7	4
5	Como	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.6	4
6	Inter	2	1	0	1	+4	+1.4	3
7	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+4	+3.2	3
8	Cremonese	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
9	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.1	3
10	Milan	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.5	3
11	Roma	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
12	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	-1	-0.4	3
13	Verona	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.3	2
14	Parma	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
15	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
16	Torino	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.7	1
17	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
18	Fiorentina	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.6	0
19	Pisa	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
20	Lecce	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.5	6
2	Udinese	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.3	6
3	Cremonese	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.9	4
4	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.6	4
5	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.6	3
6	Roma	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
7	Cagliari	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
8	Torino	2	1	0	1	-4	-1.1	3
9	Fiorentina	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.6	2
10	Atalanta	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
11	Pisa	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.3	1
12	Genoa	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
13	Lecce	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.8	1
14	Verona	2	0	1	1	-4	-3.4	1
15	Inter	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.3	0
16	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
17	Como	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
18	Bologna	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.8	0
19	Lazio	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.5	0
20	Parma	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.