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Serie A

Referee: M Di Bello

Fiorentina

T S U S S

2–1

Full-time

Milan

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 44%

29%

58%

Points per game

1,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

42%

63%

Both score Ø 59%

54%

63%

Average goals

2,4

3,0

Scored

1,1

1,7

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,15 xG 0,89

48% Possession 52%

16 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

11 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 12. · Milan 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	25	21	2	2	+42	+7.1	65
2	Juventus	24	15	5	4	+21	+3.2	50
3	Lazio	25	14	6	5	+22	+2.5	48
4	Inter	24	15	2	7	+16	+5.8	47
5	Milan	24	14	5	5	+11	+0.3	47
6	Roma	24	13	5	6	+10	+3.3	44
7	Atalanta	25	12	6	7	+14	+1.9	42
8	Bologna	24	10	5	9	-2	-0.5	35
9	Udinese	25	7	11	7	+3	-2.3	32
10	Monza	25	9	5	11	-5	-2.9	32
11	Torino	24	8	7	9	-3	+1.6	31
12	Fiorentina	24	7	7	10	-3	+2.5	28
13	Empoli	25	6	10	9	-10	-3.7	28
14	Lecce	24	6	9	9	-3	-0.9	27
15	Sassuolo	24	7	6	11	-8	-0.3	27
16	Salernitana	24	6	6	12	-16	-4.8	24
17	Spezia	24	4	8	12	-20	-3.4	20
18	Verona	24	4	5	15	-17	-1.5	17
19	Cremonese	24	1	9	14	-24	-5.1	12
20	Sampdoria	24	2	5	17	-28	-2.9	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	12	10	1	1	+22	+2.5	31
2	Juventus	13	9	3	1	+19	+1.9	30
3	Inter	12	10	0	2	+19	+3.3	30
4	Milan	12	9	1	2	+11	+1.5	28
5	Lazio	13	7	3	3	+10	+0.9	24
6	Roma	11	7	1	3	+8	-0.1	22
7	Bologna	13	6	4	3	+7	+1.1	22
8	Atalanta	12	5	3	4	+7	+3.1	18
9	Monza	13	5	3	5	+3	-1.1	18
10	Udinese	12	3	7	2	+5	+2.1	16
11	Torino	11	4	4	3	+2	+2.7	16
12	Fiorentina	12	4	4	4	-2	+2.2	16
13	Empoli	12	4	4	4	-2	-2.5	16
14	Salernitana	13	4	3	6	-1	-4.0	15
15	Sassuolo	11	4	2	5	+0	-0.1	14
16	Verona	13	4	1	8	-7	+0.0	13
17	Lecce	12	2	6	4	-2	-1.0	12
18	Spezia	12	2	6	4	-6	-2.3	12
19	Cremonese	12	1	3	8	-13	-2.5	6
20	Sampdoria	12	0	3	9	-15	+0.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	11	1	1	+20	+4.6	34
2	Lazio	12	7	3	2	+12	+1.6	24
3	Atalanta	13	7	3	3	+7	-1.2	24
4	Roma	13	6	4	3	+2	+3.4	22
5	Juventus	11	6	2	3	+2	+1.3	20
6	Milan	12	5	4	3	+0	-1.2	19
7	Inter	12	5	2	5	-3	+2.5	17
8	Udinese	13	4	4	5	-2	-4.4	16
9	Lecce	12	4	3	5	-1	+0.2	15
10	Torino	13	4	3	6	-5	-1.1	15
11	Monza	12	4	2	6	-8	-1.8	14
12	Sassuolo	13	3	4	6	-8	-0.2	13
13	Bologna	11	4	1	6	-9	-1.6	13
14	Fiorentina	12	3	3	6	-1	+0.4	12
15	Empoli	13	2	6	5	-8	-1.2	12
16	Salernitana	11	2	3	6	-15	-0.9	9
17	Sampdoria	12	2	2	8	-13	-3.0	8
18	Spezia	12	2	2	8	-14	-1.1	8
19	Cremonese	12	0	6	6	-11	-2.5	6
20	Verona	11	0	4	7	-10	-1.6	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.