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Taça de Portugal

Vila Real

S S T S S

1–5

Full-time

Tondela

U T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vila Real Tondela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Espinho	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Alpendorada	2	2	0	0	+8	6
3	Lusitano Évora 1911	2	2	0	0	+7	6
4	CD Olivais e Moscavide	2	2	0	0	+7	6
5	Caldas	2	2	0	0	+7	6
6	Vila Meã	2	2	0	0	+6	6
7	Farense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
8	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
9	Academico Viseu	2	2	0	0	+4	6
10	Comércio Indústria	2	2	0	0	+3	6
11	Vila Real	2	2	0	0	+3	6
12	Amarante	2	2	0	0	+3	6
13	CF Os Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+3	6
14	1º Dezembro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
15	Vila Caíz	2	2	0	0	+2	6
16	Fafe	2	2	0	0	+2	6
17	AD Marco 09	3	2	0	1	-1	6
18	Celoricense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
19	Ovarense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
20	Marinhense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
21	Moncarapachense	2	1	1	0	+3	4
22	União de Leiria	2	1	1	0	+2	4
23	Gouveia	2	1	1	0	+2	4
24	Torreense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
25	Oliveirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
26	SC Covilha	2	1	1	0	+1	4
27	Anadia	2	1	1	0	+1	4
28	Mortágua	2	1	1	0	+1	4
29	Os Marialvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
30	Peniche	2	1	0	1	+7	3
31	AVS	1	1	0	0	+7	3
32	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+6	3
33	Sacavenense	2	1	0	1	+5	3
34	Atlético Malveira	2	1	0	1	+5	3
35	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+5	3
36	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+5	3
37	Bragança	2	1	0	1	+4	3
38	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+4	3
39	Porto	1	1	0	0	+4	3
40	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
41	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	3
42	O Elvas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
43	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
44	FC Serpa	2	1	0	1	+2	3
45	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+2	3
46	Ançã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
47	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
48	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
49	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
50	Silves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
51	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
52	Rebordosa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
53	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
54	Mirandela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
55	União Lamas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
56	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
57	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
58	Atlético CP	1	1	0	0	+1	3
59	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
60	Salgueiros	2	1	0	1	+0	3
61	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
62	Pacos Ferreira	2	1	0	1	+0	3
63	Correlhã	2	1	0	1	+0	3
64	Chaves	2	1	0	1	+0	3
65	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
66	Uniao Nogueirense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
67	Nazarenos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
68	Monção	2	1	0	1	-1	3
69	Machico	2	1	0	1	-1	3
70	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	2	1	0	1	-3	3
71	Brito	2	1	0	1	-4	3
72	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
73	AD Fornos Algodres	2	1	0	1	-5	3
74	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
75	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
76	Portimonense B	1	0	1	0	+0	1
77	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
78	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
79	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
80	Rebordelo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
81	Charneca Caparica	2	0	1	1	-2	1
82	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-1	0
83	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-1	0
84	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
85	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	0
86	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
87	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
88	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
89	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
90	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
91	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
92	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
93	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
94	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-1	0
95	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
96	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
97	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
98	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
99	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
100	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
101	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
102	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
103	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
104	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
105	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
106	Mafra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
107	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
108	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
109	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
110	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
111	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
112	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	0
113	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
114	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-2	0
115	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
116	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-2	0
117	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
118	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
119	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
120	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
121	Vidago	1	0	0	1	-2	0
122	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
123	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
124	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
125	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
126	Fátima	1	0	0	1	-3	0
127	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
128	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
129	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
130	Almodôvar	1	0	0	1	-4	0
131	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
132	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
133	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
134	Operário	1	0	0	1	-5	0
135	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
136	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
137	Estrela Calheta	1	0	0	1	-6	0
138	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
139	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
140	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
141	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0
142	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
143	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Alpendorada	2	2	0	0	+8	6
2	Caldas	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Comércio Indústria	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	CF Os Belenenses	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Vila Caíz	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Celoricense	3	2	0	1	-2	6
7	Ovarense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
8	Marinhense	2	1	1	0	+6	4
9	Espinho	2	1	1	0	+4	4
10	Moncarapachense	2	1	1	0	+3	4
11	Peniche	2	1	0	1	+7	3
12	Benfica Castelo Branco	1	1	0	0	+6	3
13	Sacavenense	2	1	0	1	+5	3
14	Louletano	1	1	0	0	+5	3
15	Bragança	2	1	0	1	+4	3
16	Trofense	2	1	0	1	+3	3
17	FC Serpa	1	1	0	0	+3	3
18	Salgueiros	1	1	0	0	+2	3
19	Gouveia	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Naval 1893	2	1	0	1	+2	3
21	Ançã	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Rebordosa	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	1	0	0	+2	3
25	São João Ver	2	1	0	1	+1	3
26	Silves	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Sintrense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	União Lamas	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Resende	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	Atlético CP	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	SC Covilha	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Uniao Nogueirense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Correlhã	2	1	0	1	+0	3
39	Oriental Lisboa	2	1	0	1	+0	3
40	Nazarenos	2	1	0	1	+0	3
41	AD Marco 09	2	1	0	1	-2	3
42	Castrense	2	1	0	1	-4	3
43	AD Fornos Algodres	2	1	0	1	-5	3
44	União de Leiria	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Torreense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Portimonense B	1	0	1	0	+0	1
47	Mortágua	1	0	1	0	+0	1
48	Charneca Caparica	1	0	1	0	+0	1
49	Rebordelo	2	0	1	1	-2	1
50	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Maria da Fonte	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Fazendense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Tirsense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	AR São Martinho	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	Castro Daire	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Vitória de Sernache	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Carregal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Academica	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Vilaverdense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Florgrade	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Cinfães	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Monção	1	0	0	1	-2	0
64	Aparecida GO	1	0	0	1	-2	0
65	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	0
66	Paredes	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Machico	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Vidago	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Valenciano	1	0	0	1	-3	0
70	Lusitânia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
71	Portalegrense	1	0	0	1	-3	0
72	Sanjoanense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
73	Os Limianos	1	0	0	1	-4	0
74	Fayal	1	0	0	1	-5	0
75	Urzelinense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
76	Lajense	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Vila Meã	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Farense	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Vianense	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	1º Dezembro	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Oliveirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Anadia	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Os Marialvas	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	AVS	1	1	0	0	+7	3
9	Lusitano Évora 1911	1	1	0	0	+6	3
10	Atlético Malveira	2	1	0	1	+5	3
11	Lusitânia Lourosa	1	1	0	0	+5	3
12	CD Olivais e Moscavide	1	1	0	0	+5	3
13	Felgueiras 1932	1	1	0	0	+4	3
14	Porto	1	1	0	0	+4	3
15	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	3
16	Academico Viseu	1	1	0	0	+3	3
17	União de Leiria	1	1	0	0	+2	3
18	O Elvas	2	1	0	1	+2	3
19	Nacional	1	1	0	0	+2	3
20	Torreense	1	1	0	0	+2	3
21	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	3
22	Chaves	1	1	0	0	+2	3
23	Vila Real	1	1	0	0	+2	3
24	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	3
26	Mirandela	1	1	0	0	+1	3
27	Amarante	1	1	0	0	+1	3
28	Machico	1	1	0	0	+1	3
29	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
30	Mortágua	1	1	0	0	+1	3
31	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
32	Fafe	1	1	0	0	+1	3
33	Monção	1	1	0	0	+1	3
34	Espinho	1	1	0	0	+1	3
35	AD Marco 09	1	1	0	0	+1	3
36	Leixoes	1	1	0	0	+1	3
37	Pacos Ferreira	1	1	0	0	+1	3
38	Brito	2	1	0	1	-4	3
39	Alverca	1	0	1	0	+0	1
40	Gouveia	1	0	1	0	+0	1
41	SC Covilha	1	0	1	0	+0	1
42	Samora Correir	1	0	1	0	+0	1
43	Penafiel	1	0	1	0	+0	1
44	Olímpico do Montijo	1	0	1	0	+0	1
45	Santa Clara	1	0	1	0	+0	1
46	Oliveira Hospital	1	0	0	1	-1	0
47	Eléctrico	1	0	0	1	-1	0
48	Camacha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
49	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	0
50	Alcochetense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
51	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	0
52	Lagoa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
53	Juventude Évora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
54	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
55	Feirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
56	FC Serpa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
57	Quarteirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
58	Amora	1	0	0	1	-1	0
59	Rebordosa	1	0	0	1	-1	0
60	Ribeira Brava	1	0	0	1	-1	0
61	Uniao Nogueirense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
62	Mafra	1	0	0	1	-1	0
63	Celeirós	1	0	0	1	-1	0
64	Sourense	1	0	0	1	-1	0
65	Águias do Moradal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
66	Pontassolense	1	0	0	1	-2	0
67	Salgueiros	1	0	0	1	-2	0
68	Beira-Mar	1	0	0	1	-2	0
69	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	0
70	Charneca Caparica	1	0	0	1	-2	0
71	Vinhais	1	0	0	1	-2	0
72	Leça	1	0	0	1	-2	0
73	União Santarém	1	0	0	1	-2	0
74	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
75	UD da Serra	1	0	0	1	-2	0
76	Valpaços	1	0	0	1	-2	0
77	Viana Alentejo	1	0	0	1	-3	0
78	Portel	1	0	0	1	-3	0
79	Fátima	1	0	0	1	-3	0
80	Académico do Fundão	1	0	0	1	-3	0
81	Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1	0	0	1	-4	0
82	Varzim	1	0	0	1	-4	0
83	Almodôvar	1	0	0	1	-4	0
84	AD Portomosense	1	0	0	1	-4	0
85	Operário	1	0	0	1	-5	0
86	Angrense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
87	Estrela Calheta	1	0	0	1	-6	0
88	SC Celoricense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
89	Mosteirense	1	0	0	1	-6	0
90	Rabo Peixe	1	0	0	1	-7	0
91	Ferreira Zêzere	1	0	0	1	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.