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Serie A

Referee: Simone Sozza

Inter

S S S S T

3–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,5

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,8

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 32%

63%

Points per game

1,9

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

75%

63%

Both score Ø 69%

63%

75%

Average goals

3,8

2,4

Scored

2,4

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,63 xG 0,72

64% Possession 36%

22 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Inter 5. · Fiorentina 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	9	7	0	2	+8	+4.1	21
2	Roma	9	7	0	2	+6	+2.8	21
3	Milan	9	5	3	1	+7	+3.6	18
4	Como	9	4	4	1	+6	+2.1	16
5	Inter	8	5	0	3	+8	+8.2	15
6	Juventus	9	4	3	2	+3	+3.9	15
7	Bologna	8	4	2	2	+6	+0.5	14
8	Atalanta	9	2	7	0	+6	+5.7	13
9	Udinese	9	3	3	3	-4	-1.9	12
10	Lazio	8	3	2	3	+4	-2.0	11
11	Cremonese	8	2	5	1	-1	-4.9	11
12	Torino	8	3	2	3	-6	-3.1	11
13	Sassuolo	8	3	1	4	-1	-3.6	10
14	Cagliari	8	2	3	3	-2	-7.3	9
15	Parma	9	1	4	4	-5	-1.5	7
16	Lecce	9	1	3	5	-7	-4.3	6
17	Verona	9	0	5	4	-9	+0.9	5
18	Fiorentina	8	0	4	4	-5	+0.3	4
19	Pisa	8	0	4	4	-7	-5.1	4
20	Genoa	8	0	3	5	-7	+1.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+5	-0.2	12
2	Como	5	3	2	0	+6	+2.0	11
3	Juventus	5	3	2	0	+5	+4.3	11
4	Milan	5	3	1	1	+2	+1.4	10
5	Inter	4	3	0	1	+8	+5.3	9
6	Bologna	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.1	9
7	Roma	5	3	0	2	+2	+1.6	9
8	Lazio	4	2	1	1	+4	+2.0	7
9	Atalanta	5	1	4	0	+3	+5.9	7
10	Torino	4	2	1	1	-1	-1.8	7
11	Cremonese	4	1	3	0	+1	+1.8	6
12	Sassuolo	4	2	0	2	+0	-1.2	6
13	Parma	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.7	5
14	Udinese	4	1	2	1	-2	+1.4	5
15	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-2	-4.2	4
16	Verona	4	0	3	1	-1	+3.0	3
17	Pisa	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.7	2
18	Lecce	5	0	2	3	-4	-1.7	2
19	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-4	+2.4	2
20	Fiorentina	4	0	1	3	-4	+0.5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	4	4	0	0	+4	+1.3	12
2	Napoli	5	3	0	2	+3	+4.4	9
3	Milan	4	2	2	0	+5	+2.3	8
4	Udinese	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.4	7
5	Atalanta	4	1	3	0	+3	-0.3	6
6	Inter	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.8	6
7	Bologna	5	1	2	2	+0	-4.5	5
8	Cagliari	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.1	5
9	Como	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.1	5
10	Cremonese	4	1	2	1	-2	-6.7	5
11	Lazio	4	1	1	2	+0	-4.0	4
12	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.4	4
13	Juventus	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.5	4
14	Lecce	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.5	4
15	Torino	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.3	4
16	Fiorentina	4	0	3	1	-1	-0.2	3
17	Pisa	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.5	2
18	Parma	5	0	2	3	-5	-2.1	2
19	Verona	5	0	2	3	-8	-2.0	2
20	Genoa	4	0	1	3	-3	-0.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.