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Conference League
Referee: L Visser
Mainz
T S T T U
2–1
Full-time
Fiorentina
T S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Fiorentina
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
17%
17%
Points per game
0,7
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,2
2,8
Scored
1,0
1,2
Conceded
2,2
1,7
Goal diff per game
-1,2
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 88%
75%
100%
Points per game
2,3
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
50%
75%
Both score Ø 38%
50%
25%
Average goals
2,5
3,3
Scored
1,8
2,8
Conceded
0,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+2,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,97 xG 1,76
44% Possession 56%
13 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 4
3 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
3 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
19 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Mainz Fiorentina
16′
⚽ S. Sohm 0–1
R. Piccoli
Half-time 0–1
S. Widmer 🔁
↦ P. Mwene
46′
Lennard Maloney 🟨
48′
50′
🟨 Cher Ndour
59′
🔁 R. Mandragora
↦ C. Ndour
59′
🔁 M. Kean
↦ R. Piccoli
K. Sano 🔁
↦ L. Maloney
60′
Lee Jae-Sung 🔁
↦ A. Sieb
60′
Paul Nebel 🟨
62′
63′
🟨 Pablo Marí
B. Hollerbach 🔁
↦ P. Nebel
65′
Nadiem Amiri 🟨
67′
1–1 B. Hollerbach ⚽
Lee Jae-Sung
68′
69′
🔁 P. Comuzzo
↦ P. Mari
W. Boving 🔁
↦ N. Amiri
81′
85′
🔁 N. Fagioli
↦ S. Sohm
2–1 Lee Jae-Sung ⚽
K. Sano
90′
95′
🟨 Marin Pongračić
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Mainz

3-4-2-1
27 R. Zentner G
48 K. Potulski D
21 D. da Costa D
31 D. Kohr D
2 P. Mwene M
15 L. Maloney M
10 N. Amiri M
24 S. Kawasaki M
8 P. Nebel F
11 A. Sieb F
44 N. Weiper F
Bench (12)
1 L. Riess
33 D. Batz
6 K. Sano
7 Lee Jae-Sung
9 A. Nordin
14 W. Boving
17 B. Hollerbach
22 N. Veratschnig
25 A. Hanche-Olsen
30 S. Widmer
37 B. Bobzien
42 D. Gleiber

Coach: Urs Fischer

Fiorentina

3-1-4-2
30 T. Martinelli G
5 M. Pongracic D
18 P. Mari D
6 L. Ranieri D
14 H. Nicolussi Caviglia M
2 Dodo M
7 S. Sohm M
27 C. Ndour M
29 N. Fortini M
91 R. Piccoli F
22 J. Fazzini F
Bench (11)
1 L. Lezzerini
43 D. de Gea
8 R. Mandragora
9 E. Dzeko
15 P. Comuzzo
20 M. Kean
24 A. Richardson
26 M. Viti
44 N. Fagioli
60 E. Kouadio
65 F. Parisi

Coach: Paolo Vanoli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

L Visser · 132 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,34 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.