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Serie A

Referee: F La Penna

Inter

S S S S S

3–2

Full-time

Juventus

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Juventus

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

4,0

2,8

Scored

3,0

1,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 67%

79%

54%

Points per game

2,4

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

58%

46%

Both score Ø 46%

42%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,4

1,7

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,6

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,29 xG 0,92

60% Possession 40%

21 Shots 11

9 Shots on target 8

5 Blocked shots 1

6 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 1

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 7

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Inter 1. · Juventus 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	24	19	1	4	+38	+29.3	58
2	Milan	24	15	8	1	+22	+13.6	53
3	Napoli	24	15	4	5	+13	+9.4	49
4	Juventus	24	13	7	4	+21	+24.8	46
5	Roma	24	15	1	8	+15	+7.1	46
6	Atalanta	25	11	9	5	+13	+9.4	42
7	Como	24	11	8	5	+20	+15.5	41
8	Lazio	25	8	9	8	+1	-8.3	33
9	Udinese	24	9	5	10	-9	-5.6	32
10	Bologna	24	8	6	10	+1	-1.5	30
11	Sassuolo	24	8	5	11	-7	-9.8	29
12	Cagliari	24	7	7	10	-5	-12.5	28
13	Torino	24	7	6	11	-18	-7.8	27
14	Parma	24	6	8	10	-14	-15.1	26
15	Genoa	24	5	8	11	-8	-1.5	23
16	Cremonese	24	5	8	11	-12	-14.8	23
17	Fiorentina	25	4	9	12	-10	+3.7	21
18	Lecce	24	5	6	13	-16	-15.2	21
19	Pisa	25	1	12	12	-22	-13.8	15
20	Verona	24	2	9	13	-23	-7.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	9	1	2	+23	+18.7	28
2	Napoli	11	8	3	0	+10	+2.4	27
3	Juventus	12	7	5	0	+15	+14.9	26
4	Atalanta	13	7	4	2	+10	+13.3	25
5	Roma	12	8	1	3	+10	+7.4	25
6	Milan	11	7	3	1	+8	+10.3	24
7	Como	13	6	5	2	+12	+11.6	23
8	Lazio	13	5	4	4	+2	-0.3	19
9	Udinese	12	4	4	4	-4	+0.3	16
10	Cagliari	11	4	3	4	+2	-4.5	15
11	Bologna	12	4	2	6	-2	+2.3	14
12	Sassuolo	12	4	2	6	-7	-7.1	14
13	Torino	12	4	2	6	-8	-4.6	14
14	Genoa	13	3	4	6	-4	-0.5	13
15	Lecce	13	3	4	6	-7	-1.7	13
16	Cremonese	11	2	5	4	-4	-2.1	11
17	Fiorentina	12	2	4	6	-2	+5.9	10
18	Parma	12	2	4	6	-9	-9.3	10
19	Verona	12	1	4	7	-8	-2.0	7
20	Pisa	13	1	4	8	-12	-5.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	10	0	2	+15	+10.6	30
2	Milan	13	8	5	0	+14	+3.3	29
3	Napoli	13	7	1	5	+3	+7.0	22
4	Roma	12	7	0	5	+5	-0.3	21
5	Juventus	12	6	2	4	+6	+9.9	20
6	Como	11	5	3	3	+8	+3.9	18
7	Atalanta	12	4	5	3	+3	-3.9	17
8	Bologna	12	4	4	4	+3	-3.8	16
9	Udinese	12	5	1	6	-5	-5.9	16
10	Parma	12	4	4	4	-5	-5.8	16
11	Sassuolo	12	4	3	5	+0	-2.6	15
12	Lazio	12	3	5	4	-1	-8.0	14
13	Cagliari	13	3	4	6	-7	-7.9	13
14	Torino	12	3	4	5	-10	-3.2	13
15	Cremonese	13	3	3	7	-8	-12.6	12
16	Fiorentina	13	2	5	6	-8	-2.2	11
17	Genoa	11	2	4	5	-4	-0.9	10
18	Lecce	11	2	2	7	-9	-13.5	8
19	Pisa	12	0	8	4	-10	-8.6	8
20	Verona	12	1	5	6	-15	-5.1	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.